Sloppy winter ahead
SaltWire Network’s chief meteorologist forecasts rain, freezing rain and snow mix
It’s going to be a messy winter on P.E.I., says the chief meteorologist for the SaltWire Network.
Cindy Day spoke to The Guardian on Wednesday about the outlook for the meteorological winter season, which begins Dec. 1.
The next three months look like a mix of snow, freezing rain and rain with above normal temperatures.
“We are in the throws of a La Nina winter,’’ Day said, in reference to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall.
“When La Nina sets up, it usually means for Eastern Canada, including Atlantic Canada, milder than normal temperatures. People (think) that must mean no snow, but that is often the worst-case scenario.’’
La Nina means if there are any outbreaks of bone-chilling cold temperatures they will be short-lived.
But, Day said temperatures will still likely hover below freezing.
“And, when that temperature is just below freezing, that air mass can hold more
moisture and that means bigger dumps of weather. It can be snow; it can be freezing rain. La Nina winters are
often very icy.’’
So, it means fewer days of
nice, clear, crisp winter days and a lot more of frequent switching from shovels to rubber boots.
Day said it’s impossible to attach rainfall or snowfall amounts to any of this yet. A half a degree one way or another can mean the difference.
“It’s just going to be a messy, sloppy, milder than normal winter. That’s the key.’’
Day does put some stock in anecdotal stories told by her grandmother. After all, the meteorologist has published a series of books called
Grandma Says.
Day’s grandmother used to tell her that if the trees hung on to their leaves longer, which they did this year, it meant a bad winter season.
Another bad sign, people have said, is if flowers bloomed late. Someone in Halifax sent Day a picture last week of a rhododendron, a woody plant, that had bloomed again.
“All of those things seem to point to a pretty harsh winter ... if grandma is right. These observations have been around for centuries. There must be something to them for that (story) pattern to repeat. It’s not scientific, but it has been observed by our ancestors for a very long time. I believe there is a lot to be said about that.’’
In terms of the immediate future, Day said there won’t be any drastic changes in the weather through the middle part of January.
That’s when she expects things will cool down and the precipitation will begin.
The good news is that La Nina seasons often mean a smoother transition out of winter.
“La Nina usually allows us to have a nicer spring.’’