Subtle arguments rarely work in politics

There is one truth when it comes to politics – there’s only one winner.

That fact makes the game especially brutal. Politicians determined to gain power will sometimes say or do things they never dreamed necessary back when they were first considering a run for office.

In their early days, they are a bit like one member of O. J. Simpson’s legal team when the football player was facing two counts of murder.

A law professor, the lawyer looked dispassionately at the case and thought, “What a wonderful teaching opportunity this will be.”

That naive outlook didn’t last long in the hideous battle that followed, with racism, sex, money and fame all cast into the witch’s brew that produced a not guilty verdict, setting Simpson free.

Winning such a highstakes game is not about teaching, it’s only about learning – as in learning what it takes to be first, because finishing second is losing.

In a year when so many bitter lessons have been handed out, P.E.I.’s Green party leader has had to acknowledge one he has learned — subtlety is rarely a winner in politics.

Peter Bevan-Baker has been a winner of late, but it didn’t come easily. He finally won an election in 2015 – on his 10th try. Then four years later he took his party to the edge of real power in 2019, winning eight seats and nearly 31 per cent of the popular vote.

So close. Now comes the hard part, and the hard lessons with it.

The Greens are the official opposition, shoving the Liberals out of their natural second home by just 946 votes, barely over one per cent of the votes cast.

It’s a heady place to be, but it’s unforgiving.

Now, Bevan-Baker must show he truly understands the “strategic and political mistake” he acknowledges he made when he abstained – refused to vote – when it came time to be counted.

At issue was the provincial government’s capital budget, the plan on where to spend on long-term investments.

Bevan-Baker joined three other Greens in refusing to cast a yea or nay on the $195-million government plan.

Why? There was a risk of forcing a provincial election in the midst of the COVID19 pandemic, in the middle of the winter.

“I chose to abstain so I would not add to that burden,” Bevan-Baker said. “I just didn't feel enthusiastic about the budget to, with good conscience, endorse it.”

Or oppose it, as did three other MLAs, including a member of his own party.

“I can tell you that hours and hours and hours of debate and thought and careful consideration went into each and every vote,” he added.

A thoughtful and honest reason, but it didn’t sell well, not for the man who would be premier.

And he knows it now. “I now understand that people want a yes or a no,” said Bevan-Baker in a recent interview. “They don't want something in the middle, even though I think that was a more accurate reflection of how I felt.”

A thoughtful man by instinct, he must now find a way to be a premier-inwaiting, someone who has the answers for the problems people face. Or, at least, is confident enough to think he has the answers.

That may not feel natural to a man like Bevan-Baker. It may not be comfortable. But politics – and especially elections – are a poor place to make nuanced, subtle arguments.

Simplifying his message, tailoring it for the realities of politics, is the final hurdle facing the Green’s leader. The test of how well he learns that lesson awaits him, the next time Islanders go to the polls.