No seat change in Atlantic Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shuffles top players ahead of possible election
A federal cabinet shuffle in Ottawa on Tuesday morning has political watchers predicting Nova Scotia could see both a federal and provincial election next year.
“Oh, I would think so,” said Lori Turnbull, a professor at Dalhousie University’s school of public administration, when asked whether we could expect a spring federal election.
“Oh, I think there will be an election here, too,” said Roger Bacon, who at 95 is Nova Scotia’s most senior retired premier.
“A new (provincial Liberal) leader will want his own trademark. He won’t want to follow in Steve’s footsteps, that’s impossible to do. … But I think the (provincial) Liberals would be wise to go to the people before the (federal Liberals) do,” Bacon said.
After announcing the cabinet shuffle, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told the media
that he didn’t want a spring election.
“From the very beginning of any minority Parliament, every political party understands that elections can happen,” he told reporters outside Rideau Hall this morning.
“But as I’ve consistently been saying, we don’t want an election.”
Canadians don’t respond well when their elected officials appear to want to an election.
Turnbull expects Trudeau to use the federal budget in March as an election document by laying out a bold plan that cuts to port, taking the wind from Jagmeet Singh’s sails rather than from Erin O’Toole at starboard.
“Trudeau is probably feeling he can define the election on his own terms, decide what the campaign will be about,” said Turnbull.
“I think (NDP Leader Jagmeet) Singh will have to justify why somebody leftleaning should vote NDP when the Liberals are planning to do all these (leftleaning policies). In some ways (Conservative Leader) Erin O’Toole is being forced to answer questions about his party’s closeness to the radical right and the Liberals will want to keep them doing that.”
Asked if she thought leaks to media that Ottawa is considering labelling the Proud Boys a terrorist group, on the same day as the Liberals stoked election rumours with a cabinet shuffle, will be part of a Liberal effort to keep the Conservative party off-balance, Turnbull said, “I think so, the Liberals have to push that.”
There were no changes to portfolios held by Atlantic Canadian MPs.
P.E.I. MP Lawrence MacAulay retained his role as veterans affairs and national defence minister.
Nova Scotia’s only cabinet minister, Fisheries Minister Bernadette Jordan, held onto her job in the shuffle, despite having been roundly criticized by commercial fishermen, First Nations and retired fisheries officers for her handling of the moderate livelihood dispute this fall.
“If he had changed fisheries minister that would have indicated that we’re not going to an election any time soon,” said Turnbull.
“It would mean he had clearly lost confidence in someone, and I don’t think he wants that to be the story – that would have put a very different spin on today.”
At least that’s what Sipekne’katik Chief Mike Sack said after talks fell apart between him and Jordan and he made appeals directly to the Prime Minister’s Office.
If Turnbull were the betting sort of public policy professor, she’d put wagers on a spring federal election and a fall provincial election.
Inconveniently for Jordan, Sack has stated that Sipekne’katik will be restarting its moderate livelihood in St. Mary’s Bay in the spring.
Jordan’s riding of South Shore-St. Margarets stretches along a coast that relies heavily on the lobster fishery.
For his part, Bacon thinks two spring elections “are a possibility”.
“Generally you do a cabinet shuffle three to four months before calling an election – that’s not a rule you have to stick to but that is the trend,” said Bacon, who sees the federal and provincial Liberals seeking to capitalize on the popularity boost attached to their handling of the pandemic.
In the cabinet shuffle, Marc Garneau took over the Department of Foreign Affairs from Francois-Philippe Champagne who was shifted to innovation, science and technology. Omar Alghabra will take Garneau’s old post at the Department of Transport.