Any chance is better than none

Alexander Fleming, the developer of penicillin, said, “I have been trying to point out that, in our lives, chance may have an astonishing influence.”

Our lives could take numerous paths, depending on as little as which way we drive from A to B. But of course we will never know what would have happened if we had taken route two instead of route one. In a bridge deal, though, we can see what would have happened if we had chosen line two — but how that affects our later life is unknown.

In this deal, what may happen in three no-trump after West leads the club queen and East discourages with the two?

South might have rebid three no-trump, which would have promised six-plus strong diamonds with, in principle, 18-19 points and stoppers in the two unbid suits. North’s three-spade rebid showed 4-4 in the majors. If he were 4=5, he would have rebid three clubs, New Minor Forcing.

South has seven top tricks: two spades, three diamonds and two clubs. If diamonds are 3-3, the contract will be a breeze, but when West wins the fourth round of diamonds, what should he do?

First, he should be guided by East’s discards. Here, East should throw the spade two, then the club seven. This should persuade West to shift to hearts. Also, since the defenders presumably need four tricks in the suit, West must lead the 10 or queen. Luckily, East’s hearts are just strong enough, and the contract fails. Lead high for three or more winners; low if only two are sufficient.