The statisticians had a crystal ball

Daniel Libeskind, a PolishAmerican architect and artist, said, “Life it is not just a series of calculations and a sum total of statistics; it’s about experience, it’s about participation, it is something more complex and more interesting than what is obvious.”

That made me think of this deal from a 15-table duplicate. Look at the North hand. South opens one heart, and righty passes. What should North do?

In the duplicate, one North cautiously passed, one bid one no-trump forcing, five responded one spade, and eight raised to two hearts.

The textbooks advise two hearts. The snag with one spade and one no-trump forcing is that if partner rebids two of a minor, when North then bids two hearts, it promises only a doubleton, because with three, North would have raised one heart to two hearts.

North should hope that if there is a better spade fit, South will have enough power to try for game with two spades, which North would raise to three spades.

Here, though, if North bids one spade, South should raise to two spades. This might end the bidding, or East might balance with a takeout double.

After one heart — two hearts — pass, West should double. Then East’s two-no-trump advance ought to show length in both minors, not be natural.

North will win eight or (more likely) nine tricks in spades. In hearts, South might follow the percentage play of a low heart to his nine, which would give him five losers.

Three diamonds by West is destined to lose two spades, one heart, one diamond and one club, to go down one — a great result in a duplicate.