Some guesswork may be required

In “Mrs. Warren’s Profession,” George Bernard Shaw wrote, “There are no secrets better kept than the secrets everybody guesses.” In bridge, one sometimes has to guess, but often there are indications pointing toward the right line.

In today’s deal, for example, how should South play in four hearts? West cashes three spade tricks, then shifts to the diamond king.

North’s three-heart rebid was a slight push, but his hand had good controls (two aces and one king), a respectable side suit, decent trumps and a singleton. South wondered about his diamond losers, but couldn’t pass. Whenever you smell a game, bid that game.

Outside of trumps, South has three winners: one diamond and two clubs. So he needs seven trump tricks, which must be five tops and two ruffs on the board. But declarer knows that East is threatening to overruff the dummy in diamonds. How many hearts does East have? If all four, the contract is probably unmakable. If East has three trumps, who has the heart 10?

South wins trick four, cashes the heart king, then ruffs a diamond high in the dummy. East discards the spade jack. What next?

West is known to have started with three spades and six diamonds. This makes it more likely that hearts are one=three than two-two. Declarer should pitch two diamonds on dummy’s top clubs, ruff a club, trump his fifth diamond with the heart ace and lead dummy’s last heart. When East plays low, South should finesse his nine. With this layout, the contract is home.