Jobs report, trade deficit offer mixed signals
More young people looking for work, but trade lost ground for a fourth month in a row
The Canadian economy continued to churn out more jobs in October even amid forecasts that economic growth is slowing in the second half of the year.
Statistics Canada said Friday that the economy added 35,300 jobs in October as the number of full-time positions swelled by 88,700, while part-time employment dropped by 53,400 jobs.
“After modest net job gains through the summer, October’s strong result suggest there is still some life left in the economic upswing,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter wrote in a report.
The gain in jobs came as the unemployment rate increased to 6.3 per cent, up from 6.2 per cent in September, as more young people started looking for work.
Nationally, the jobs report was offset by a separate report from Statistics Canada that there was a $3.2billion trade deficit in September, essentially unchanged from the previous month, which was revised to a deficit of $3.2 billion compared with an initial estimate of $3.4 billion.
The trade deficit came as both exports and imports lost ground for a fourth consecutive month in September as they both dropped 0.3 per cent.
CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld noted that when both exports and imports fall that typically means both foreign and domestic demand is slowing.
“If we look at the numbers for the third quarter, it is clear that exports are going to be a huge drag on growth,” he said.
The overall drop in exports came as the motor vehicles and parts sector fell 10.6 per cent, offset, in part, by a 7.2 per cent increase in exports of energy products. Prices of exports fell 0.6 per cent, while volumes grew 0.3 per cent.
On the other side of the equation, imports fell as the electronic and electrical equipment and parts category fell 4.6 per cent and consumer goods fell 1.9 per cent. Prices of imports fell 1.5 per cent, but volumes increased 1.3 per cent.
Economists have been predicting that the economy is slowing in the second half of the year after the redhot pace set in the first six months of 2017.
The strong growth to start the year helped prompt the Bank of Canada to raise its key interest rate target twice, but the central bank kept it on hold last month as it also predicted growth would slow.
Shenfeld called the jobs report “a bit of an incongruity” amid the other economic data that has been pointing to a slowing of growth in the third quarter.
“Every quality measure we typically look at in the employment report was on the side of angels,” he said.