Probabilities seem improbable

How many suit-split percentages and suit-combination plays have you memorized?

No doubt a fair number, but the inability to retain everything has spurred some authors to write books on the subject. In 2010, Robert F. MacKinnon published “Bridge, Probability and Information.” Now he has written a sequel, “Never a Dull Deal” (both Master Point Press).

To test your memory or analysis, how would you play Q-10 opposite K-9-7-6-5-2 for five tricks with no entry problems or opposition bidding?

That suit combination decided the 2008 world women’s team championship, if the results on the subsequent three boards had been the same assuming this result had been different — a big if.

At the other table, the English North-South pair bid the same way as far as two hearts. Then Nevena Senior (South) passed and took nine tricks. The Chinese South tried for game. North, with bad diamonds and knowing that her partner’s hand was limited to 15 points, passed.

West led a spade to the queen and king. Declarer immediately played a heart to dummy’s 10. However, Nicola Smith (East) won with her jack and shifted to the diamond four. Sally Brock (West) took the trick and returned a suit-preference diamond five. South played another trump, but East won with her ace and led a low club. West took that trick and gave her partner a diamond ruff for down one. England won the match by 1 international match point.

The right play in the heart suit is low to the queen first, planning to run the 10 next.