Sometimes count most important

Warren Buffett said, “Predicting rain doesn't count. Building arks does.”

Predicting a bridge result doesn't count. The number of tricks won does.

In this deal, for example, what is likely to happen after South opens four diamonds?

South has a textbook preempt, but it has the big drawback of carrying the auction past three no-trump — not that North-South have any chance.

Now West has two choices: double and four hearts. Which do you prefer?

Obviously, double hides the five-card major, but keeps more options open, including four diamonds doubled. Four hearts shows the major, but the suit lacks a certain robustness for introduction at the four-level.

I much prefer double. Then partner should bid with a long suit or, as here, pass with a balanced hand. Now analyze both four diamonds and four hearts.

Against four diamonds, West will lead a club. There is a strong case for choosing the queen, which asks partner to give a count signal. Here, East will show an even number, surely four. So, West, after taking two club tricks, should shift to the heart queen. Then the defenders take two clubs, two hearts and one diamond for down two, plus 500.

The best defense against four hearts is costly for EastWest. Assuming West is the declarer, North might lead the spade ace, but does better to choose his singleton diamond. South wins with his ace and shifts to his singleton. North takes three spade tricks, on which South discards both of his clubs. Then it goes club ruff, diamond ruff, club ruff for down four!

Look for the Saturday Bridge and Chess and local Bridge results in the new Saturday Fun & Games section