Several tight election races locally

Horwath safe bet to win, but new, redrawn ridings offer strategic choices

AS THE FOUR major party leaders vie for the province’s top job, here in Hamilton, veteran politicians, rookies and rivals are battling to be your representatives at Queen’s Park.

Ontario’s 42nd general election campaign begins Wednesday, with Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, Mike Schreiner’s Greens and Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives trying to unseat Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne.

Locally, Hamilton has several tight races thanks to newly drawn riding boundaries created in 2015. Two completely new ridings — Flamborough Glanbrook and Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas — are up for grabs, while other ridings, including Hamilton Centre and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, have been slightly redrawn to match up with federal election boundaries.

Local political watchers say the three incumbent NDP candidates are likely safe in their traditionally centre-left ridings, including Horwath in Hamilton Centre, Monique Taylor in Hamilton Mountain and Paul Miller in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.

“If I was any one of those three incumbents I’d feel pretty good,” said Henry Jacek, political science professor at McMaster University.

While Taylor and Miller have both faced allegations of harassment in the weeks leading up to the campaign, the Liberals had difficulty finding candidates to face off against them.

Local lawyer Jennifer Stebbing was nominated in Hamilton EastStoney Creek only on Saturday, and the vacant Liberal candidacy on the Hamilton Mountain is set to be filled by entrepreneur Damin Starr on Wednesday evening — late nominations that will make it difficult for the Liberals to hit the ground running during the campaign.

Locally, Hamilton has several tight races thanks to newly drawn riding boundaries created in 2015

Horwath’s personal popularity and leader status make her almost impossible to defeat in Hamilton Centre, though firsttime Liberal candidate Deirdre Pike is a well-known and wellliked face on the local political scene.

Traditionally, the PC candidates in these three ridings — filled this time around by Dionne Duncan in Hamilton Centre, Esther Pauls in Hamilton Mountain, and Akash Grewal in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek — trail in third place behind the NDP and Liberals.

“I tend to think, and this is my projection, that the NDP is going to do better (provincially) than they did last time,” Jacek said. “Their three incumbents should win — the Liberals are not going to do well, I’m pretty certain.”

The new riding of Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is arguably the tightest local race, with Liberal incumbent Ted McMeekin trying to maintain his seat at Queen’s Park against NDP challenger Sandy Shaw and PC Ben Levitt.

While McMeekin, a veteran in the former riding of Hamilton-Flamborough-Ancaster-Glanbrook, remains personally popular, dissatisfaction with Wynne may drag him down.

Some voters, particularly in the more conservative areas of Ancaster and some enclaves in Dundas, will be drawn to Levitt, 26, who won the PC candidacy after a protracted nomination battle, suggests McMaster political scientist Peter Graefe.

However, the new HWAD boundaries include more leftleaning areas, including Westdale and areas of Dundas, while the more right wing enclaves of Flamborough have been shaved off.

That bodes well for Shaw, the NDP candidate, a well-known figure both professionally and politically (she ran for city council

in Ward 1 in the 2014 municipal election). Shaw has already had the benefit of a precampaign visit from Horwath, signalling the riding is in play for the NDP.

Still, Jacek suggests that voters who lean toward the NDP may vote strategically for McMeekin to keep the seat from going to the Conservatives.

“It’s not easy to be a voter in this riding,” he said

“They have a strong Liberal incumbent who is on the progressive side, but how are they going to make up their mind between the local candidate and the leader?”

Local political watchers will be keeping a close eye on the race in Flamborough-Glanbrook, where city council colleagues Judi Partridge and Donna Skelly are jockeying for the same seat (Partridge for the Liberals, Skelly for the Conservatives) — a faceoff that makes for “natural drama,” says Graefe.

The riding is one of the most right-leaning areas in Hamilton. It’s held federally by Conservative David Sweet. And despite Partridge’s personal popularity as the area’s ward candidate, Graefe says Skelly’s chances of taking the area are high.

The NDP have yet to nominate a candidate in Flamborough-Glanbrook.

“It’s arguably the most winnable for the Conservatives,” said Graefe.

Regardless of riding, political affiliation or experience, Hamilton’s local candidates will face four tough weeks of door-knocking, debates, attacks and tough questions.

And, ultimately, either the road home or a path to Queen’s Park.