The hazard of being a PC-free city

What happens when party that wins city is not the one that forms government?

If Andrea Horwath’s NDP win Thursday’s election, Hamilton will be in the perfect catbird seat for advancing its interests at Queen’s Park.

With all due regard to other candidates in the race, Horwath herself is certain to be re-elected in the riding of Hamilton Centre, giving this city its first ever homegrown premier.

And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the NDP could sweep or nearly sweep the city’s four other ridings as well.

Regardless, the point is electing a rock-ribbed contingent to a Horwath government would guarantee that Hamilton’s voice would be heard throughout the provincial corridors of power.

That’s if the NDP win. The storyline changes dramatically if Doug Ford’s PCs form the government.

Under that scenario, this city is at risk of shooting itself in the foot. There’s no guarantee it will send even one Progressive Conservative to Queen’s Park.

And without a Tory on the government benches, Hamilton would effectively be stranded in the political wilderness with nobody to plead its cause in caucus or cabinet for four long years.

Bear in mind, Hamilton currently has three New Democrat MPPs, one Liberal, and one Conservative. But riding redistribution means it’s losing PC incumbent Sam Oosterhoff (formerly Niagara West-Glanbrook) who’s now a candidate in the new riding of Niagara West.

Arguably the redrawn electoral boundaries could still help the Tories capture a Hamilton riding. But given voter wariness about Ford, few things should be considered bankable for the PCs.

Consider: NDP incumbents Paul Miller in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and Monique Taylor in Hamilton Mountain are clearly in the driver seat. Again, with all respect to other candidates, upsets seem unlikely, even in the face of allegations of harassment by office staffers against both incumbents.

Meanwhile, New Democrat Sandy Shaw in Hamilton West-AncasterDundas appears to be giving conniptions to Liberal incumbent Ted McMeekin and PC candidate Ben Levitt.

McMeekin, MPP since 2000, is fighting like a wolverine. But a combination of the Liberal collapse, the NDP surge — maximized by a strong candidate in Shaw — and a solid core of PC voters is casting a shadow over McMeekin’s chances.

It would be foolish to count a survivor like McMeekin out, but the riding is clearly in play with either Shaw or Levitt poised to pick up the reins.

The last local seat to be accounted for is Flamborough-Glanbrook where city councillors Donna Skelly and Judi Partridge are respectively running for the PCs and Liberals. The NDP candidate is Melissa McGlashan.

There are other ballot choices but realistically the winner will be one of the big three. Like Skelly, Partridge has the advantage of name recognition. But the Liberal party’s disintegration combined with rural conservatism — the riding elected Conservative MP David Sweet in 2015 — gives the edge to Skelly. The wild card is whether McGlashan benefits from the NDP’s momentum.

All things considered, Skelly is arguably the closest candidate the Conservatives have to a probable winner locally. If so, that also makes her Hamilton’s best hope for not being shutout of a Ford government.

In essence, Skelly could play the same wire-pulling role for the city that McMeekin played so effectively with the Liberal government when, in 2011, he became the last Liberal standing after the party gradually lost its monopoly of all five Hamilton seats.

In the final analysis, the important thing for Hamilton is to have one or more MPP in government. Although polls are showing the NDP and Conservatives in a dead-heat, CBC poll tracker suggests the PCs are more likely to win because of a better regional distribution of voters.

That said, according to the polls, Hillary Clinton was supposed to be president of the United States, Britain was going to reject Brexit, and mayor Naheed Nenshi was supposed to be unseated in the 2017 Calgary election.

Obviously polls don’t always get it right. If they do this time, the question is will Hamilton be standing in or out of the cold?

CLARIFICATION: In Saturday’s column I wrote Stephanie Davies of the None of the Above party didn’t attend a Dundas candidates’ meeting. In fact, she wasn’t invited. My regrets.