Will new ward boundaries mean new faces on council?

Hamilton’s tribunal-imposed ward boundary shakeup could give newcomer candidates a better chance at beating the incumbent advantage

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IT OR NOT, more Hamiltonians will be voting for a new — or at least unfamiliar — councillor in this city election than during any municipal race since amalgamation.

That’s partly because four ward races lack an incumbent councillor — but also because ward voting boundaries have shifted dramatically due to a tribunal-imposed redrawing of the political map. (You can thank citizen activists for forcing that boundary showdown with a reluctant-to-change council.)

The boundary shakeup means thousands of residents must vote in a different ward Oct. 22.

That could be a big deal, because municipal elections tend to skew heavily in favour of incumbent councillors with political networks and built-in name recognition.

Having a “representative relationship” — being the go-to person to deal with garbage pickup woes or filling a pothole — is a huge advantage for an incumbent councillor, said professor Karen Bird, chair of the political science department at McMaster University.

But the ward boundary changes mean many of those incumbents are now courting new unfamiliar residents.

“So an interesting question is how far does that name recognition carry across the city?” said Bird. “I would say a challenger with a good ground game, who gets out early, would stand a better chance in a redrawn ward ... Potentially, it opens up the competitiveness.”

One of the most dramatic boundary

changes is the elimination of the city’s only fully rural ward in Flamborough. Coun. Rob Pasuta is not running again and the old Ward 14 voting population will be largely divided between a new Ward 13 (now dominated by Dundas) and Ward 12 (now dominated by Ancaster.)

Candidates in those wards will have to convince rural voters — many of whom opposed the ward boundary change — that they understand and respect farm country concerns.

Ward 14 technically remains in name but it will relocate to the west Mountain, adding more “old city” voting power to a tenuously balanced urban-suburban power dynamic on council. (Squeezing a fourth ward onto the Mountain also means many upper-city voters will now be shuffled across former ward voting boundaries.)

Watch for how that new power dynamic plays out in an expected acrimonious battle next term over who pays what in an amalgamated city of former towns and rural townships — this time over transit costs city-wide.

The Mountain race is also intriguing because only one incumbent, Tom Jackson, is running in his old ward.

The departure of former councillor Donna Skelly to provincial politics leaves Ward 7 a wideopen race, while longtime Ward 8 Coun. Terry Whitehead has decided to run in new Ward 14.

The formerly sprawling Ward 11, meanwhile, has donated its former upper Stoney Creek voters to a new Ward 9 and its former Winona voters to a new Ward 10. The shakeup means hundreds of voters must consider new faces or, at least, a different sitting councillor, anyway.

But while the political map is new, many of the election issues will be familiar from 2014, including the never-ending debate over the LRT.

But old debates will be coloured with a new political reality at the provincial level with a Progressive Conservative government led by Doug Ford, one featuring vastly different priorities than its Liberal, LRT-supporting predecessor.

Ford has already thrown a political curveball at Toronto in the form of a vow to redraw that city’s ward map to mirror federal and provincial ridings — ahead of the Oct. 22 vote.

So far, Hamilton’s electoral map is not affected by that Toronto-focused legislative change.

Here’s a brief look at some potential election issues in Hamilton:

LRT: The mayoral race is poised to be dominated — again — by light rail transit, with the two best-known and well-resourced candidates squaring off for-and-against the $1-billion project. Candidate responses so far suggest it will affect many ward races, too.

Affordable housing: Skyrocketing housing prices and rents have already prompted the city’s first rent strike and increased

the displacement of Hamilton’s low-income residents.

Area-rated taxes: Boring label, explosive debate. Expect a showdown over who pays what for services between the old city of Hamilton and amalgamated suburban areas. The big debate is over transit costs, but special infrastructure funds exclusive to old-city councillors are also controversial.

Poor transit: HSR passengers suffered through a no-show bus crisis late last year that has only recently been brought under control via an emergency driver hiring spree. The city’s 10-year transit strategy is also up in the air, at least until the fate of LRT is settled. Roads: Everything connected to roads is an issue this election. The potholes. The speeders. The inconvenience or lack of bike lanes. The spike in pedestriancar collisions.