Certain way or the highly likely?

In so many bridge deals, if you count correctly and draw the logical conclusions, you will find the best declarer-play or defense. At other times, educated guesswork will suffice.

In this deal, South is in four spades. West leads the diamond seven, and East wins with the ace. What happens after that?

When an opponent opens with a pre-empt, and you are planning on entering the auction, assume your partner has six or seven points and act accordingly. So, South jumps straight to four spades, which understandably ends the auction. (At this level, a takeout double announces at least two places to play.)

At trick two, it might look tempting for East to shift to his singleton heart. However, even if West does have the spade ace, that will produce only three defensive tricks: one diamond, one spade and one heart ruff. South will probably have the remainder. It is better for East to switch to the club jack. If South covers, West will win with the ace, cash the queen and play a third round, hoping East can ruff. Or, if South plays low, West will overtake with his queen, cash the ace and lead another club.

After South ruffs the third club, he draws trumps and must find the heart queen.

There is the guaranteed method. East is known to have started with two spades, at least three clubs from the play and seven diamonds from the bidding. He has at most one heart.

Alternatively, South adopts the “easy” method. Because East has seven diamonds and West has two, West is an 11-to-6 favorite to hold the heart queen.