Ontario’s finances: Bleaker is better for Ford and friends
Back in 2015, when it delivered what would be its final budget, the Harper Conservative government announced it had kept its promise to balance the budget.
It did, but what was twisted to allow that? First, the government pretty much drained the contingency fund — think of it as a rainy-day fund — to prop up the bottom line.
It also kept employment insurance premiums artificially high to inject needed revenue predictions. And it bolstered its revenue by using unrealistically high prices for oil, thus inflating resource tax dollar projections.
The government was thrilled. Its critics, not so much. The parliamentary budget officer called it what it was — sleight of hand.
That bit of history is instructive considering the Ford government’s revelation that Ontario’s deficit is nearly double what the Liberals had said it was. It’s not OK that the previous government may have understated the deficit, any more than was OK that the Harris conservative government claimed a surplus at the end of its term, while an independent auditor found after the Liberals had won that the truth was more like a $5-billion deficit.
Governments should have to tell the truth about finances. The truth is that they don’t. And it’s also true that the Ford government’s take on the deficit is more about partisan agenda-setting than about being transparent.
Consider: The biggest driver of the new, $15-billion deficit is a change in accounting procedure. Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk has said the Liberals were understating the deficit, primarily by counting teacher pension funds as an asset. But a panel of independent experts appointed by the Liberals said Lysyk was wrong.
The accounting dispute is old news. It remains unresolved, and now Ford’s financial commission has said the government should adopt Lysyk’s view on “a provisional basis” until an agreement can be reached. That isn’t stopping Ford from claiming it is “the biggest political coverup in history.”
If so, why did Ford and friends wait until now to make their claims? And why did Ford and company use the government’s numbers during the election campaign, without any hint it didn’t buy those numbers?
This cannot be about further punishing the already trampled Liberals. Even though Ford’s fans as recently as this weekend were chanting “Lock her up” about Kathleen Wynne, there is no new political payoff in beating up someone you have already resoundingly defeated, unless you want to be portrayed as a vindictive bully.
No, this is about something else. Ford wants to paint a financial picture so bleak it will justify him making drastic cuts in services and people. He can then point at the Liberals and say “it’s their fault.”
But the truth is, observers have been pointing out since the campaign that Ford’s lavish spending promises and his plans to find $6 billion in savings don’t add up.
So that investment in health care to deal with hospital overcrowding? In public transit? In mental health services? Don’t hold your breath. Ford now has the excuse he has been looking for to govern the way he wants to — with a heavy hand and a sharp knife. Many Ontarians aren’t going to like the outcome.
Ford wants to paint a financial picture so bleak it will justify him making drastic cuts in services and people. He can then point at the Liberals and say “it’s their fault.”