Sellers’ market could make its return

The latest figures from realtors’ association show a 60.1 per cent sales-to-new-listings ratio

The local real estate market is on the cusp of returning to a sellers’ market, according to the latest figures from the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington.

October’s sales-to-new-listings ratio, which can point to whether a market is in favour of sellers or buyers, reached 60.1 per cent — an increase of 10 per cent from the month prior but a drop of more than 5 per cent from the same month last year.

Typically, above 60 per cent is considered a sellers’ market, while below 40 per cent is deemed to be a buyers’ market, according to a news release from the association.

“We’re right on that threshold of a balanced to sellers’ market,” said RAHB CEO George O’Neill. “Obviously that’s kind of the area that sellers prefer. It does create a little bit of issue for some buyers.”

With the realtors’ association reporting 1,035 residential properties sold last month, sales are down 13.1 per cent from October 2017.

Year to date, sales are 17.7 per cent lower than this time last year, according to the release.

But there is still great interest in properties in the $400,000 to $500,000 range, O’Neill said.

Anecdotally, he said he’s hearing that, in some cases, those properties are still getting multiple offers.

“In that middle price range, that’s really what’s driving (the sales-to-new-listings ratio) to be on the cusp of a sellers’ market again,” he said.

Last month, the number of sales for single family properties in the entire RAHB market, which includes Hamilton, Burlington and Grimsby, fell compared to the same month last year. The average sale price increased by 5.9 per cent.

Townhouse sales were down from 2017, while the average sale price of a townhouse remained almost the same, according to the news release.

In Niagara North, active listings from last October to the same month this year saw a 69 per cent increase — from 107 to 181. In Hamilton, active listings jumped 28 per cent (1,418 to 1,817); Haldimand County saw a 22 per cent jump (138 to 169); and Burlington saw a 6 per cent increase (545 to 575).

While Hamilton, Burlington and Haldimand County saw an increase in the overall average sale price when comparing October 2018 to 2017, Niagara North experienced a decrease from $504,582 last year to $492,378 this year.

Taking a closer look at communities, some also saw an average sale price drop over the same period, including Flamborough ($887,214 to $700,900), Glanbrook ($524,873 to $499,353), Grimsby ($511,731 to $498,654) and West Lincoln ($510,975 to $403,000).

To O’Neill, the drop speaks to an affordability issue in places where the average price might be slightly higher than others.

“With the interest rates rising, people are concerned about affordability,” he said. “And all the changes the government made in the last year-and-a-half are really kicking in to impact the market in the way that they intended, which is to take any heat out of the market.”

O’Neill said it’s typical for the market to be quite active in the fall and slow down around the holiday season.

While he said he doesn’t have a crystal ball, he expects November to continue to be a “fairly strong” market.