Remember what didn't happen

Warren Buffett said, “In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”

That is true at the bridge table as well.

But successful players are like Buffett, picking winners while looking through the windshield and not needing the rearview mirror.

In today’s deal, how should South plan the play in four spades after West leads the diamond king?

North and South have mirror distribution — the same number of cards in each of the four suits. This is usually bad news because losers stay losers forever. It is impossible either to ruff or to discard a loser.

That applies here, but luckily South has enough firepower to survive if he remembers what didn’t happen. Declarer has three clear losers: two diamonds and one club. As a consequence, he must assume that the spade finesse is winning. However, South might also concede a second club trick.

Declarer takes the first or second diamond trick and runs the spade queen. Whew — the finesse works. Now he plays a spade to the ace, cashes his three heart winners and exits with a diamond. If West has to win the trick, he will be endplayed, forced either to lead a club or to concede a ruff-and-sluff. Here, though, East wins with his 10 and shifts to a low club. Should South play his jack or king?

The key comes from the auction. West has already shown up with at least 8 points, the spade king and diamond king-queen. If he had the club ace as well, surely he would have opened.

Remember what didn’t happen.