COVID projections ‘predicting a disaster’
Stay-at-home order about to be lifted in Hamilton as provincial modelling recommends staying at home
Provincial projections recommend “sticking” with the stay-at-home order days before it’s expected to be lifted in Hamilton.
The fast-spreading COVID variants will rise rapidly in late February and lead to a third wave if restrictions aren’t maintained, concludes the modelling presented Thursday just ahead of when Hamilton and most of the province is expected to move back into the colour-coded response framework Feb. 16.
“Am I missing something here or is this presentation actually predicting a disaster,” asked TVO reporter John McGrath.
“No, I don’t think you’re missing anything,” said Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, dean of the Dalla
Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.
Ontario’s chief medical officer of health Dr. David Williams disagreed saying, “I wouldn’t say it’s a projection of disaster.”
He tried to clarify the province’s position, saying, “We may be stopping the stay-at-home order but we still want people to stay at home.”
It’s expected Hamilton will find out Friday what restrictions will be in place as of Tuesday. Hamilton was in grey lockdown before the stay-at-home order was implemented Jan. 14.
Hamilton’s medical officer of health, Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, already raised concern Feb. 9 about the stay-at-home lifting too quickly, saying “significant controls” need to continue.
The projections told two stories, with the first being the success of the current measures.
Hamilton is among the vast majority of public health units to see cases dramatically reduced in just over one month to a mere four new infections Thursday from a high of 209 on Jan. 5.
The weekly rate of new cases per 100,000 has fallen to 49 from a peak of 164, which would be in line with the red zone Hamilton was in from Nov. 16 to when lockdown started Dec. 21.
The number of COVID patients in Hamilton’s hospitals are down to 47 from more than 110 last month.
There are fewer than half the number of outbreaks there were just two weeks ago, with the city reporting 22 on Thursday.
It includes a new outbreak at the Salvation Army at 94 York Blvd. after one client tested positive at the shelter. Outbreaks are now over at Lawson Ministries: Salvation Army, the
Wellington Nursing Home and the Bank of Montreal at 886 Barton St E.
But instead of letting up, the provincial projections recommend staying the course with the hope off “a late spring and summer that is much safer and more open,” said Brown.
“The other story is about a real threat,” he said. “The new variants of concern ... threaten to undo our progress.”
The three variants, which have not been detected in Hamilton yet, transmit so much more easily that a reproduction number higher than 0.7 represents exponential growth, compared to the usual 1.0.
Hamilton’s latest reproduction number on Feb. 10 was above that threshold at 0.88.
“The same public health measures that work against the old variant, work against the new variant,” said Brown. “But there is little room for error in our response to this threat.”
The vaccine rollout is decreasing deaths in long-term care, but not expected to protect hospitals yet.
At the same time, COVID deaths in the community are increasing.
“This is in older Ontarians and reflects the importance of prioritizing vaccinations to where they can give the greatest benefit,” said Brown.
Hamilton reported one new death Thursday, which appeared to be a senior aged 70 to 79. Of Hamilton’s 272 COVID deaths, 90 per cent are those age 70 or more.