THIRD WAVE COVID-19 variants could fuel surge if rules are eased, federal modelling shows
‘Protecting our progress ... will require stronger action,’ Tam warns
New federal forecasts project that COVID-19 variants could fuel a potential third wave that would eclipse its predecessors if Canada doesn’t double down on the strict protocols that have reduced infections.
The Public Health Agency of Canada released modelling Friday suggesting that while infections continue to decline nationally, the spread of virus mutations threatens to reverse that progress.
Canada’s chief public health officer says there are currently fewer than 33,000 active cases in Canada, a 60 per cent drop compared to a month ago.
But with more contagious variants now detected in all provinces, Dr. Theresa Tam says Canada may not be able to avoid a rapid acceleration of daily cases, predicted to hit 20,000 by mid-March, without continued vigilance.
“We are at a critical point in the pandemic and our efforts have begun to tip the balance in our favour,” Tam told reporters.
“Protecting our progress and limiting the impact of variants of concern will require stronger action.”
Even with current restrictions, the country could see infections increase by more than 10,000 per day in April, according to the modelling.
At a news conference Friday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he has spoken to provincial premiers about a cautious approach
to lifting restrictions.
Trudeau also said Canada received a shipment of more than 400,000 doses of the PfizerBioNtech vaccine on Wednesday — the largest delivery to date.
He noted the vaccine delivery is set to rapidly increase, as the provinces and territories prepare to roll out almost a million and a half doses of COVID-19 vaccines over the next three weeks in the race against the variants.
While it’s hard to make exact predictions, Tam said the concern is that Canada could be heading down a rapid growth trajectory that would outpace
daily increases of roughly 8,000 new cases recorded in early January.
The current national average of 2,900 new cases per day is 60 per cent higher than the peak of the first wave, she added.
“We’ve been saying all along that if we ease measures too soon, the epidemic will resurge even stronger. But with highly contagious variants in our midst, the threat of uncontrolled epidemic growth is significantly elevated,” said Tam.
“Measures must be stronger, stricter and sustained long enough to suppress rapid epidemic growth of variants of concern.”
In Ontario, the COVID-19 hot spots of Toronto and Peel Region will remain under a stayat-home order for at least two more weeks.
The government said case rates are still too high in Toronto and Peel, and variants spreading in the North Bay area meant that region also needed to remain under the stay-home order in order to preserve health-system capacity.
York Region, however, will see the order lift next week as it moves to the red — or secondstrictest — category of Ontario’s tiered pandemic restrictions framework.