Deaths fell in Japan last year. But how?

Small drop is big contrast to huge death toll across world from COVID-19

TOKYO — Deaths in Japan fell last year for the first time in more than a decade, a jarring contrast to the huge death tolls suffered by many countries in the pandemic and a signal that Japan’s coronavirus measures have had positive spillover effects.

The Health Ministry reported this week that deaths in Japan had dropped by more than 9,300 in 2020 to around 1.4 million. The decrease — seventenths of 1 per cent from the year before — was a surprising turnabout for a nation with the oldest population in the world.

When the coronavirus first began spreading early last year, many feared that Japan’s large cohort of older people would make the country especially vulnerable. But case numbers and deaths have stayed much lower than in the United States and Western Europe.

As of Tuesday, Japan had recorded just under 7,600 deaths from the virus, and the sevenday average for new cases stood around 1,200. Daily infection numbers have never exceeded 8,000.

The United States, by contrast, has recorded more than 500,000 deaths and 28 million infections.

The most recent Japanese government data does not break down mortality by category, so it is difficult to say with certainty what caused the decrease in deaths.

But data from earlier in the year suggests that it was spurred in large part by a drastic decline in respiratory illnesses, a likely side effect of the country’s almost ubiquitous adoption of mask wearing and social distancing.

While masks were already a common sight in Japan, over the past year, they have become de rigueur as a virus-fighting measure.

The country has also widely adopted other steps to prevent transmission of the virus, including the placement of hand sanitizer at the entrance to virtually every commercial space and workplace, and broad adherence to recommendations to avoid the “three C’s”: closed spaces, crowded places and close contact with others.

One other, albeit small, factor is a decrease in traffic accidents as fewer people took to the roads, especially as the government twice declared states of emergency.

Deaths from road accidents dropped nearly 12 per cent in 2020, to 2,839, according to data maintained by the National Police Agency.