COVID forecast predicts ‘much better summer’
Caution required for Ontario to navigate ‘minefield’ of variants as case rates rise in Hamilton
Hamilton’s COVID-19 vaccination clinic will start giving out first doses again Friday as provincial projections show Ontario is navigating a “minefield” of fast-spreading variants.
“If we are very careful, we can imagine a much better summer,” said Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. “But if we let up, we will — with little doubt — lose the gains we’ve worked so hard for.”
The fast-spreading variants now make up nearly 20 per cent of Ontario’s COVID cases from under five per cent on Jan. 25.
Hamilton had 23 presumed cases of the variants as of Thursday and one confirmed infection of B.1.17, which originated in the U.K.
“The cases will likely explode if the virus gets into conditions that creates superspreader events,” said Brown. “Any part of the province can go from a good situation to a bad situation in a matter of a few days.”
Case rates are starting to rise again in some of the province’s public health departments — including Hamilton, which saw the weekly rate of new cases per 100,000 population jump to 56 on Thursday from just 32 per 100,000 on Feb. 14.
The reproduction rate has soared to 1.11; it was 0.78 on Feb. 4. Past provincial projections have suggested this number needs to stay below 0.7 in the presence of the more contagious variants. Even with the original strain, it needs to be below 1.0.
“If those numbers continue to rise, then that’s something that will lead us to be talking more to the chief medical officer of health and saying, ‘OK, when do we make some changes here,’ ” medical officer of health Dr. Elizabeth Richardson said at a city briefing Monday. “We’re going to be talking more about the emergency-brake provision.”
The city reported 39 new cases of COVID as the number of infections increased at the Barton Street jail, the Salvation Army Booth Centre shelter and at St. Teresa of Avila Catholic Elementary School.
There are 25 ongoing outbreaks, including new ones declared Feb. 23 on unit B3 of Juravinski Hospital, St. Eugene Catholic Elementary School, St. Matthew’s Children Centre, and long-term-care home Extendicare Hamilton.
“We need the next few weeks to understand how the variants are actually changing the pandemic,” said Brown. “There is a period of remaining risk before the pandemic likely recedes in the summer. We can keep the gains we’ve made by watching spread very closely and by loosening public health measures only carefully.”
Provincewide declines in hospitalizations are slowing. Hamilton hospitals reported caring for 42 COVID patients as of Thursday.
There are still high numbers in Ontario’s intensive-care units (ICU), which can be seen in the 10 new transfers to Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara from overburdened hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area.
In total, 46 COVID patients have now been sent from the GTA in just over one month — 10 to the Charlton Campus of St. Joseph’s Healthcare, 11 to Hamilton General Hospital, 20 to Burlington’s Joseph Brant Hospital and five to Niagara Health System.
“Slipping now will have grave consequences,” said Brown. “Vaccines are coming ... But we have to give the vaccines time to work.”
Lockdown combined with vaccination are credited with avoiding more than 1,500 cases of COVID in Ontario longterm-care homes from Dec. 14 to Feb. 10 and saving 326 lives.
“Vaccination of older age groups and high-risk communities will drive hospitalization and deaths down further,” said Brown.
The North End fixed-site clinic run by Hamilton Health Sciences has been giving out only second doses since it reopened Feb. 10 after being closed for two weeks due to vaccine shortages.
It has now fully vaccinated 6,000 workers from healthcare settings and will continue to focus on these groups as it goes back to giving first doses Friday. No breakdown has been provided of what jobs these staff do or where they work.
Another fixed-site clinic is opening March 1 at the West 5th Campus of St. Joseph’s to vaccinate those next in line. Public health has also proposed a number of other fixed and mobile clinics as part of the rollout.
As of Feb. 24, Hamilton had administered 32,925 doses of vaccine but it’s not known how many people that represents as many would be second doses.