Saudi-Iran Agreement Could Change Region
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Only five years ago, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, derided Iran’s supreme leader, saying he “makes Hitler look good.” But this month, the Saudis re-established diplomatic relations with Tehran and spoke gauzily of the countries’ “sharing one fate.”
The diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of facing off in proxy conflicts across the Middle East was a coup for China, which facilitated the agreement. And it was a relief for Iran, which is grappling with domestic unrest and an economy hurt by harsh sanctions.
But Saudi Arabia, too, has much to gain if the new cooperation truly takes root. The pact could help quiet the regional tensions that have inflamed wars, fueled media spats and sent missiles and drones flying across the Arabian Peninsula.
Resolving conflicts that have drained the Saudi government’s budget, stained its reputation and deterred investors has become a top priority for Prince Mohammed, as he overhauls the conservative Islamic kingdom’s economy and society, hoping to make it into a global hub.
The rivalry between the two Islamic nations, separated by less than 240 kilometers of Persian Gulf waters, has long shaped life in the Middle East.
It has a sectarian dimension — Saudi Arabia’s royal family and a majority of its populace are Sunni, while Iran’s people are overwhelmingly Shiite — but has mainly played out in proxy conflicts in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where Iran has supported militias that Saudi officials say have destabilized the region.
The timing of the reconciliation was a surprise to many analysts; until recently, Saudi officials had said they were making little progress in talks with Iran. So, too, was the role that China played, hosting the discussions that led to the deal.
Several experts framed the Chinese involvement as a challenge to waning American dominance in the Middle East. Some Gulf Arab officials say that they can no longer rely on the United States to guarantee their security, that they must solve their own problems and that China is ready to offer weapons, technology and investment with no strings attached.
But other analysts cautioned that Prince Mohammed is simply using the more pragmatic approach to foreign policy that he has followed over the past few years. While the United States remains the kingdom’s dominant security partner, they say Washington could not have brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran anyway, given its deeply strained relations with Iran.
Mohammed Alsulami, who heads a think tank in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, said: “Saudi foreign policy is very clear: They want to solve any differences, disagreements or disputes through diplomacy and have been trying very hard with the Iranians.”
“Saudi wants to try now,” he added, because “we are thinking that there might be some difficulties in the near future in terms of Iran’s relationship with the international community — the Russia crisis, enrichment. So let’s send this positive message and see.” Iran has taken Russia’s side in the Ukraine war by selling it drones used against Ukraine.
The shift toward resolving regional conflicts is driven by Prince Mohammed’s desire to transform Saudi Arabia into a global power in its own right, no longer as beholden to the United States as it once was, and the crown prince is eager to strengthen its relationships in Asia, Europe and Latin America. He is also keen to portray the kingdom as a neutral arbiter in a world polarized by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
That does not mean that Saudi Arabia is casting off the United States as its main security guarantor anytime soon; the United States supplies the vast majority of the kingdom’s weapons and defensive systems. But it does mean a relative weakening of America’s supremacy in the region.
Yasmine Farouk, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington research group, said, “The Saudis have learned, over the past few years, very hard lessons, one of those being we have to continue in the diversification of our relationships.”