Who is Poilievre exactly without Trudeau?

It is a great paradox of the current political moment that despite federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s raging hate-on for the mainstream press, we talk about him as though his prime ministerial victory is both guaranteed and imminent.

According to Poilievre, mainstream media is a mouthpiece for the PMO. But it is a lousy Liberal mouthpiece that publishes breathless coverage of the Conservative leader’s dominance in the polls more than a year out from the next federal election.

It is a lousy Liberal mouthpiece that treats Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s defeat in that race as a foregone conclusion — as so many pundits do. (And, frankly, as I am doing right now.)

One might think that in view of the sweeping assumption that he will be the next prime minister, Poilievre would extend an olive branch, or more fitting, a juicy red apple, to the press. As Ontario’s finance minister Peter Bethlenfalvy should be able to tell him, we don’t bite. (Remarkably, the Progressive Conservative MPP sat down with the Toronto Star’s editorial board last week and lived to tell the tale).

But letting his guard down comes with its own risk — that Poilievre would have to contend honestly for the first time with the toughest question he may face: who exactly is he without Trudeau?

For despite the candidate’s impressive success in the polls and his churning out of slick, sassy content, Poilievre hasn’t truly defined himself in the eyes of Canadians.

He has, rather, defined himself at every turn, in opposition to a hugely unpopular prime minister; a prime minister, it should be noted, whose long in the tooth government is consistently embroiled in scandal.

This fact was front and centre at Poilievre’s recent “Axe the Tax” rally in Toronto where, when asked what brought him there, one enthusiastic attendee told Star reporter Brendan Kennedy: “Trudeau sucks, obviously.”

“Trudeau sucks, obviously” is a neat way of distilling Poilievre’s message to Canadians — a message on which he will likely get elected.

But “Trudeau sucks, obviously” is not a message on which to govern, least of all in a future where Trudeau is no longer a going concern.

Of course, there is more to the Conservative leader than hostility for the current prime minister.

His appeal to cash-strapped young voters is obvious. (There is a section of his website entitled: “Fire Gatekeepers. Build homes. Fast.”) As is his appeal to Canadians of all ages who wrongly or rightly, attribute their own dwindling savings to federal government overspending.

But even within his policy focused messages — whether on social media or in Parliament — there exists a nagging, nearpathological fixation with the prime minister that calls to mind the “Brady Bunch” episode when Jan laments “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia.”

Clearly this is working for Poilievre — for now. But what happens if and likely when there is no “Justin, Justin, Justin” to lament? What happens when a future prime minister Poilievre has to govern a population that didn’t so much choose him as reject the other guy?

Perhaps it is time for the Conservative leader to show Canadians at large — not just his base — who he is beyond an attack dog snarling in the face of legacy media and “gatekeepers.” For while some voters appreciate his prickliness with members of the press whom they suspect of harbouring left-wing bias, they might grow weary of his anti-establishment shtick when he is quite literally the establishment personified.

If victorious in 2025, Poilievre will no longer be able to portray himself as Canada’s Robin Hood defending the people’s hard-earned coin. He will be the sheriff. And the majority of Canadians — who do in fact still get their news from mainstream sources — will expect him to answer questions about their money without throwing a hissy fit.

As for Trudeau, he’ll likely be on an island somewhere impervious to all of this. His successor, meanwhile, may find himself longing for his trusty old punching bag.