Middle finger to global risk

I have written many times bemoaning not being able to vote because of my permanent resident status. On Thursday, June 23 I can and will vote in a referendum the result of which may shake the global status quo system to its core. Brexit, is a clear cut remain or leave decision for the UK and its membership of the European Union (EU).

It should never have come to this. Reform and membership of the EU has long been a bone of contention and British Prime Minister David Cameron pledged, mostly I think to mollify his own party, that he would hold a referendum of the UK’s membership of the EU.

He has done just that. And in my view politically blown his own feet off. Cameron had more time. He could have gone for a vote next year. Cameron worked hard at getting some reform out of the EU for the UK and got very little in my opinion. However, I really think that Cameron thought that a remain vote was a done deal. Boris Johnson, a pretty popular UK Tory and former Mayor of London who is widely tipped to be the next Prime Minister thought long and hard about which camp he would join and plumped for leave.

The campaign has been long and increasingly bitter. Remain went for the economic argument and the Brits have had experts and organisations up the kazoo telling them to vote remain including current and former U.S. Presidents. Then we have the IMF, EU leaders and about every economist you can think off all saying that Brits would be worse off, lose jobs, suffer inflation, house price deflation, risk of war and more. In fact, the only thing I haven’t heard of so far is alien invasion. There is still time.

Has what the media called the Remain campaign, Planet Fear, worked? Has it hell. I know polls are not reliable but in the early days Remain was streets ahead. Now, a recent poll has Leave ten points ahead as we go into the final frenzy.

At the time of writing the Financial Times poll of polls has Leave 47 per cent to Remain 44 per cent. Seven of the last 10 polls has Leave ahead. To me it looks like the bigger the poll sample the greater the chance of a close poll or a win for Leave.

Getting down to brass tacks. For a lot of voters, including me, as I’m going to vote leave, it’s about immigration and control and sovereignty.

I’m not comfortable knocking immigration because I’ve been an immigrant. Mostly it’s OK but sometimes it hasn’t been. Anyway, imagine that Canada had control of some of its immigration but that it was compelled to allow anyone, whatever their skill and education level, from a population of over 500 million free access.

There are already some 60 million people in the UK in an area little more than a third of the size of Alberta. I don’t blame people for the EU for coming to the UK where the wages are higher but it is causing waves, keeping wages down and sometimes putting pressure on housing, education, benefits and the health service.

Take that a bit further and the EU has always been perceived to be moving towards a super state where its laws and regulations supersede those of member countries. Add in with that a disputed figure of nearly $632 million a week from the UK that the EU has control of and we have a lot of unhappy campers. In reality including rebates back from the EU the actual cash figure is around a half to a third of that but it’s still a lot of money.

I think whatever happens there were will be global ramifications and Cameron’s days in power are numbered. A win for Leave will rock the boat, may even set off a series of events that sinks the EU as other countries follow suit. A narrow win for Remain, will also rock the boat because the issue won’t go away.

For myself and my family that can vote I guess we liken voting leave as a Canadian vote to join the U.S. I can’t see that happening anytime soon.

He has done just that. And in my view politically blown his own feet off. Cameron had more time. He could have gone for a vote next year.”