“A bloody difficult woman”

Excuse my language but Britain’s new Prime Minister, Theresa May, has been described on camera by veteran UK tory Kenneth Clarke, as “A bloody difficult woman,” he seemed quite pleased about it too. And, almost from the moment she was announced it was like some unseen force had poured a calming fluid over the markets and the UK pound started to rise against the U.S. dollar. There is a known, known in the UK government again.

Right from the get go, May said, “Brexit means Brexit.” So that’s another known known, all it leaves is to how and when it gets done. There will be difficult negotiations ahead and I’m sure that there will be some negotiators in the EU that may be apprehensive about what’s coming. There will be hiccups along the way no doubt but at least the world’s fifth largest economy is starting to plot a road map.

So, what else does my gut see as a big picture event coming soon. One doesn’t have to look far. The U.S. Presidential election Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump, is in my view another opportunity for an anti-establishment vote to kick the status quo. And, as such I would be surprised it such a vote would be accurately reflected in the pre-election polls. Clinton being a woman is a tremendous boon, however, Clinton being a Clinton I am not so sure of. Trump is to me is an enigma in politics that has come out of left field and this, I think, has shocked even the U.S. Republican Party. We he do what he says or tone it down when he has the big picture and more advisors than he knows what to do with? Who could do better in diplomacy against another push from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Clinton or Trump? I guess a good barometer for that might be to check the sales of survivalist store goods.

The Brexit vote was a kick in the lower regions for the markets and establishment that didn’t see it coming. The initial turmoil is over but the fundamentals are still there. I don’t think we’ve come out of the crash of 2008 and only imaginative and perhaps long term damaging monetary and fiscal engineering have kept things ticking over. Weaknesses and vulnerabilities usually come out in the wash eventually.

There is another B word that we should be worrying about, banks. Look to Italy, there may need to be a state bail out for some of its banks, which may fall foul of EU rules. While I’ve no doubt that even dropping one’s toast butter side down gets attributed to Brexit, the Italian banking crisis has been on the horizon for some time and it may be contagious. I don’t think that Canadian banks are too exposed to European debt but a good many of them may be up to their shoulders in oil industry related debt and may suffer more as the oil price remains stuck below US$50 a barrel. According to a Bank of Canada survey taken before Brexit it marked business sentiment in Canada as subdued in its quarterly Business Outlook Survey. It is likely that interest

Britain’s new Prime Minister, Theresa May, has been described on camera by veteran UK tory Kenneth Clarke, as “A bloody difficult woman,” he seemed quite pleased about it too.”

There is another B word that we should be worrying about, banks. Look to Italy, there may need to be a state bail out for some of its banks, which may fall foul of EU rules.”

rate cuts will be more on the central bank’s agenda rather than hikes, which is good news for mortgage payers but not for savers.

For Alberta that is and was heavily dependent on an oil and gas economy I guess its not so much as how low can it go but how long it will stay there and is there a way back?