Two and two make five.
Whatever people may be saying about Donald Trump’s presidency one could not describe it as dull. I watched the inauguration ceremony and thought at the time that attendance seemed to be thin on the ground compared to four years ago. I did not think for a moment that it would turn into a major issue between the Trump administration and the media’s estimation based on comparing photographs and public transport stats that attendance was less.
Going beyond that we now have an investigation being ordered into fraudulent voting because of claims that Hilary Clinton won more of the popular vote. I have no clue as to how that’s going to go. Trump won under the existing voting system. If it is now considered to be flawed then, democratically it is up to administrations to see about changing it. Trump’s America first inauguration speech coupled with fist pumping body language was both compelling and disturbing.
Trump’s early days are all about executive orders, build a wall, immigration, vetting, health care repeal and more with rhetoric about trade are all well and good but sooner rather than later policy must be set requiring the cooperation of both houses. I’m expecting some fireworks from his own party. I also think he made a very bad mistake in alienating his own media. I understand there have been many top-level resignations from the U.S. civil service, more than is considered normal for a changeover I’ve read.
On the plus side, Trump came across as presidential during UK Prime Minister’s Theresa May visit and he didn’t go off on one when asked an awkward question from a well-respected BBC journalist. How Mexico plays out I don’t know. Years ago, the wall and tariffs would have prompted a war. I understand that Justin Trudeau is set to meet with Trump in the next 30 days; a meeting with the Mexican president was cancelled. Given the Brexit vote and Trump’s ancestry I understand why Trump met with Prime Minister May. I would have greeted my neighbours first.
Brexit goes on. I have found it amusing that economic forecasters are under pressure for getting it wrong in that regard. The UK’s economy has not fallen off a cliff as predicted. The EU’s next shock to the system could come in the form of Netherland’s election in March. Populist anti EU leader, Geert Wilders is ahead in the polls, if that means anything, and even though he could find it hard to form a government a populist result will be another thorn in the EU’s side going in to Brexit talks with the UK.
As for the markets, I have seen time and time again that pundits and analysts are either unwilling or incapable of taking geopolitical events into account. I think this is a big mistake and disaster waiting to happen.
Talks on Syria have gone quiet right now but at least we are not seeing the awful carnage that was going on. There have also been talks about reunifying Cyprus but I understand there is real hope here. I was also pleased to see a hand over of power in Gambia went over peacefully in the end after years of dictatorship. That could have been nasty. Media love to point out that new president Adama Barrow used to be security guard for UK retailer, Argos. Now I’ve done it too.
I have seen TV interviews with Chinese officials that have alluded to being ready for a trade war with the U.S. and another that indicated the nation was ready for a real war too, horrible. I don’t believe China is going to back down and I was surprised to see Xi Jinping advocating globalisation at Davos. The Chinese New Year is that of the Fire Rooster, which can be associated with conflict. As for Russia, I have read that Lithuania, formerly part of the Soviet Union, is preparing for a possible Russian invasion. Unlike Ukraine, Lithuania is a NATO member. The alliance will be sorely under pressure should Russia test its resolve here.
I am hopeful that Trump becomes more presidential and takes good advice before acting. I am fearful though as to how he will react in a crisis that will surely come.