Self inflicted wound.
Maybe someday I won’t feel compelled to lead with beleaguered U.S. President Donald Trump. Today is not that day. From my observer’s point of view, I increasingly regard the White House as an ant’s nest of activity with little or no direction as it reacts to a combination of circumstances, media disclosures and the behaviors of President Trump. Some have compared it to House of Cards being played out for real but I’m not so sure that it’s as sophisticated as that.
Trump had an opportunity to change things. I think increasingly that because of his character he will be unable to. FBI director James Comey was fired under questionable circumstances and the story changed by the day. Then Trump met with the Russians, posing for pictures too. During the meeting, it is alleged that Trump gave at best inappropriate information given by allies, probably Israel, at worst the disclosure could have compromised an intelligence source and quite possibly put the source’s life in danger. I don’t believe Trump did it deliberately with forethought and that is most likely the trouble.
There is a learning curve with any job and being U.S. President must be a steep one. I’m not sure that Trump wants to learn it. Indeed, it looks to be the other way about. Trump has been called out for poor judgment and worse and I fear it will continue. Now we have a special counsel in the form of former FBI Director Robert Mueller and the Russian investigation will, I think, leave no stone unturned.
The markets have just started to figure out that things may not go as first thought on Trump’s election. Which, I guess is a lesson that one shouldn’t count one’s chickens before they’ve hatched. My gut feeling is that Trump, who seems to hate the job anyway, will quit before he is pushed out. If he doesn’t then I also think that he might get pushed under the bus by his own party giving the opportunity for Vice President Mike Pence or, if he is tainted too, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan to take over. Trump still has the chance to heed the wisdom from Presidential school but I think the window is closing. I think much of Trump’s troubles are self inflicted wounds. Can he change his ways? I’m not sure he can.
It has been reported that North Korea could have been behind the Wanna Cry ransomware attack. It is worrying that so many businesses and organisations have unsupported operating systems in their infrastructure. It is also worrying that a more sophisticated attack on newer operating systems could bring much of our interconnected infrastructure to a staggering halt. North Korea is still testing missiles. It has not, yet, tested another nuclear device. Maybe the leadership thinks it might need all the armaments it has?
In Europe, the French Presidential election has calmed nerves, although much will depend on the parliamentary election in June. President Macron will not have much time to make his mark. In the UK, nerves will be clamed further if Prime Minister May can increase her majority. As far as Brexit talks go a recent announcement by the EU that the talks will not be private is understandable but in my view, will unleash a media war that may turn nasty.
In South America, Brazil is in a leadership crisis and Venezuela is much worse. Indeed, I would not be surprised to see more civil unrest while unpopular and unworkable government policies are enforced. I think something has to give here.
Canadian banks escaped the worst of the financial crisis in 2008. However, in the second week of May Moody’s down rated, for the first time in four years, the long-term ratings of six Canadian banks citing concerns over consumer debt levels and high housing prices. I’ve read recently that Canadian subprime lenders have been shoring up their liquidity positions as withdrawals accelerate. We’ve long been told that the Canadian property market and Vancouver and Toronto particularly was too hot. Is the bubble about to burst?