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The number of COVID-19 cases are falling in Canada. Whether that continues if and when we have a second or third wave is a known unknown. Personally, I still think that we may be on a second wave now with the virus maybe sweeping through during the last flu season. Is it possible that a significant percentage of people have an immunity? Again, we don’t know. What we are starting to find out is that COVID19 has likely been around for longer than the first official documented cases. Several countries are reporting cases going back to January, December 2019 and I read a possibility of even November 2019.

Statisticians and journalists are also starting to look at excess deaths over and above normal, StatsCan has revealed figures showing hundreds of excess deaths in Canada in the early part of the official pandemic and not all of them have been assigned to COVID-19. But could they be related? Such as deaths because people could not or would not seek or be able to get prompt medical attention? Going back further I would take a stab that there are going to be excess deaths over normal numbers for many countries before the first official case.

The economy has been torpedoed. We’re not going to see the full statistical effect for quite some time. The unemployment rate in Canada as of May is over 13 per cent. I have read predictions that it might hit 16 per cent in June. A lot of people that are claiming Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), which has been extended for another two months, may not have a job to go back to and will be unable to find one. I guess one could liken this to kicking the can down the road if you will, hopefully, in order to figure out a longer term solution, or more likely in the hope that the economy will pick up. I think we will see some improvement but not nearly enough.

So, what to do? Once CERB is cut off, people on the brink will fall off the edge, lose their homes, split their families, become sick, work for cash, even turn to crime. The consequences for the economy of that will be dire.

The EI system is not for everyone and people without the hours worked do not qualify and, EI is temporary. We may be looking at a core of long-term unemployed people here. Here’s some ideas. Perhaps a long-term unemployment benefit with credits for volunteer work? Job creation infrastructure projects. Job creation in professional services such as long-term care, health, police, military and more.

A significant number of unemployed people are going to be older. Maybe, roll back the age when people can retire and, more significantly qualify for top up retirement benefits. Or, just forget about the lot of the above and go for a significant taxable Universal Basic Income for everybody. To my military mind the KISS (keep it simple stupid) concept of that is more logical.