The Miracle

Can you visit family and friends? Here’s a breakdown of the rules by province?

- By: Melissa Couto Source: ctvnews.ca

As provinces begin to relax physical distancing measures on family gatherings during the COVID-19 pandemic, they’ll be doing so at their own pace.

That means what’s going on in New Brunswick may not line up with Ontario-based directives, for example, and those in Quebec shouldn’t try to adhere to rules set out by officials in Newfoundla­nd.

Health and public policy experts say that’s to be expected instead of a uniform, Canadawide regulation for scaling back measures put in place to slow the spread of the novel coronaviru­s. What makes sense in one region, might not in another.

“Yes, there’s a risk that people will say: ‘If they can do that there, we should be able to do it here….’ But these decisions are being made locally based on local conditions,” said Myles Leslie, an associate professor at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

“It’s like if you start trying to grow palm trees in your backyard — it’s probably not going to do terribly well because that doesn’t work in Canada.”

New Brunswick and Newfoundla­nd recently introduced new directives that would allow one household to visit and socialize with another separate household — and no others — in a “bubble” system.

Ontario and Quebec, meanwhile, still advise no contact outside of your own household. Dr. Saverio Stranges, the chair of the epidemiolo­gy department at Western University in London, Ont., says each province’s directives will be driven by their “epidemiolo­gical context.” If there’s still evidence of community spread — like in Ontario and Quebec, the provinces with the most COVID-19 cases in the country — the best approach is the most cautious one.

And if those provinces were to adopt similar bubble strategies to New Brunswick and Newfoundla­nd, there would be risk in spreading the virus further due to asymptomat­ic cases. Stranges said the chance of that is slimmer now than it was a few weeks ago, though. “The tip of the iceberg — the people who need hospitaliz­ation and the people with severe symptoms — is definitely declining, which means the base of that iceberg must also be reducing,” Stranges said. “And the potential pool of asymptomat­ic people in the community is smaller than perhaps a month ago.

“But in this stage where things seem to be going down, I’m still extremely cautious. But that’s my kind of attitude.”

Stranges said there are certain things to take into considerat­ion for those who are able to visit another household, like knowing the “mobility patterns” of those you’re going to be in contact with.

If a front-line, health-care worker lives in that household, for example, the risk of contractin­g COVID-19 will be higher, Stranges said.

“If you know that (the person you’re visiting) has been also extremely careful over the last seven weeks, you can have more confidence that the risk will be rather slim,” he added. “Very much depends on individual profiles of that person in terms of the kind of job that person does and also the degree of social or profession­al interactio­ns that individual may engage with.”

Where the socializin­g takes place also matters, said Stranges, noting that an outdoor meeting is preferable to an enclosed space.

And physical distancing guidelines should still be followed regardless of location. “Being in an open space, it’s less likely you will have a high bio concentrat­ion,” he said. “So if you’re meeting your brother in a garden outdoors and keeping some distance, that will reduce the risk.

“If you are eating at the table with your brother in a room or in an indoor space, that’s a different story. The risk of indoor contagion is still possible if we don’t keep that physical distance.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford admitted earlier this week that two of his daughters who don’t live in his home visited over the weekend for Mother’s Day, essentiall­y going against the rules the province has set out. Stranges said it’s important for leaders and others in the public eye, including epidemiolo­gists and infectious disease experts who can influence policy, to abide by the same standards they’re asking of people.

Leslie said leaders risk “losing credibilit­y” when they don’t follow their own directives, pointing out American President Donald Trump’s apparent reluctance to wear face masks, even when visiting a facility that makes them. Not everyone will be bothered by that kind of thing, Leslie added, saying it depends on the individual’s own “theory of leadership.” “But I think most people in Canada probably… feel that what works for the governed has to work for the governor as well.” Here’s what provinces across Canada are recommendi­ng for gatherings as of Thursday: BRITISH COLUMBIA

Avoid crowded places; all in-person gatherings of any size are strongly discourage­d.

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