The pandemic depression

According to the World Bank, nearly 60m people will be pushed into poverty and the global economy will shrink by 5pc this year.

,1 the midst of a crisis, whether it’s battle or crime or, in the case of most of the world, a pandemic, there is no time to stop and assess the damage. 3eople and institu tions and governments do what they can there is an emphasis on taking extreme measures for life preservation, the pulling out of all the stops.

,t is only later, after the storms have passed, that there is time to assess the cost of the cata clysm. ,t is then that the losses are tabulated and invento ries made the enumeration of what has been lost is essential if plans are to be made for the continuation of life and the re alisation of the future.

7he world is in the middle of a crisis now. 7he disease that has stumped the world, for which no scientist has yet been able to discover a cure, rages on more than five months since it first emerged on the world stage. 7he shutdowns and the lock downs, the too fast reopening, the return to lockdowns, are still pausing and playing the world like a sordid game of musical chairs.

7he assessment of damage will come only once this dark mo ment has passed. 2nly then will be seen what the impact of so much death and so much loss has been. 7he economic costs alone will be staggering. ccording to economists &ar men and 9incent 5einhart, the global economy will never be the same. Unlike past financial crises, the truly global nature of this one means the damage will be far reaching, involving each and every country. ccording to the :orld ank, nearly million people will be pushed into poverty. lready, the alarms are being sounded the :orld ank has forecast that the world’s economy will shrink by five per cent this year, the United 6tates ureau of /a bour 6tatistics has forecast the worst unemployment figures in years, and the ank of (ng land has announced the most dire forecast that the country has faced since . 6ome of the world’s richest consumers are likely to be flail ing, and, as they do, so too will they spread the cost to those whose goods and services they were in the habit of purchasing. 7he manner in which the dom ino effects of economic crises elsewhere impact people eve rywhere and the persistence of these issues for longer than ever before is what qualifies what’s coming as a depression’, as op posed to a mere crisis. 3akistan has not been impact ed by &ovid as have some of the worst hit countries. 5e cently, the credit rating agency 0oody’s changed 3akistan’s credit rating to stable’ it had been under probation for a downgrade . 7hat may be wel come but it unfortunately does little to cushion the impact of what is on its way. 7he policies being used by developed and industrialised nations to stabi lise their economies are the cul prit. (ven as the virus abates, the restrictions on borders, for eign workers and students are likely to persist amid fears of some new pandemic.

(ven more troubling is the shrinking of global trade. e tween and , global trade growth had already fallen by half. ccording to the :orld 7rade 2rganisation, trade is supposed to fall further, by pc or more in .

s many have pointed out, 3a kistan largely had no plan to deal with the pandemic. 7he government, it appeared, Must shrugged and said whatever will be will be. :hile demo graphic factors like a young population and lower degree of urbanisation may have helped prevent the virus spread in 3a kistan, skirting the economic consequences of the virus will be far trickier. 7he low price of oil means that 3akistan’s abil ity to export labour and hence collect remittances will be im pacted. 7he reduction in world wide demand for raw materials will likely deal another blow. 7he border controls imposed for &ovid will not Must mag ically disappear when the pan demic abates or when a vaccine is discovered. 7hey will be part of the longer term legacy of this dark time.

5ich countries will protect their citi ens through any number of social welfare programmes. country like 3akistan has no such safety net, leaving most people to rely on family mem bers to survive catastrophes. 7hese familial networks will not be a successful source of support, given the widespread nature of the economic pain caused by the pandemic. fter all, when people are suf fering themselves, they are un likely to have the ability to help others. 0ore people will be thrown into dire economic cir cumstances without recourse. ,nstead of revelling in the glory of improved credit ratings, the 3akistani government should use the rest of the time during this ongoing crisis to develop a comprehensive plan to deal with the economic aftermath of the pandemic and the pandem ic depression’ that is likely to follow. 3oor countries cannot eliminate the adverse econom ic consequences that are foisted on their citi ens, but they can, with better planning, mitigate those effects.

7he government could, for in stance, create alternative em ployment schemes for labour ers and other workers who cannot return to their Mobs in the ulf states and in 6audi rabia. n expansion of public health related government schemes such as the /ady ealth :ork ers programme could be ex panded not Must to deal with the vaccination needs of the popu lation but also to provide em ployment to families who may be struggling.

3eople in 3akistan know not to rely on the government for anything. ,t is time that 3aki stani governments begin to be ashamed of this fact rather than revel in it while refusing to take responsibility for the people. t the outset, the prime min ister instructed the population that they shouldn’t panic it is now time for the government to panic and prepare a plan for the future.

7he writer is an attorney teach ing constitutional law and po litical philosophy.

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