Unrest in Iran part of a vicious cycle

Chicago-based Islamic world studies professor Ahmad Sadri calls Iran “the platypus of humanity’s political evolution.”

By that, Sadri means the Islamic republic is a strange animal, an amalgamation of different political systems — theocratic, democratic and authoritarian.

Sadri’s analysis is a useful backdrop for understanding what’s happening a week into the surprising outbreak of countrywide protests that have rattled Iran’s theocratic dictators and left at least 21 protesters dead as of Tuesday.

Despite a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers that led to most international sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economy remains stagnant, and unemployment — especially among the young — is far too high.

Meanwhile, a tech-savvy population, half under the age of 30 — in a nation of an estimated 48 million smartphones — yearns for more social freedoms. But they have been frustrated by the country’s ruling mullahs, who show few signs of loosening their strict, fundamentalist grip on the country.

Anger over lack of jobs, rising prices, corruption — and despite domestic need, the regime’s massive spending on foreign interventions, from Syria and Yemen to Lebanon and Bahrain — erupted a week ago. Since then, it has spread to dozens of Iranian cities and towns, the first major protests since the failed 2009 Green Movement.

Protesters have also directly called for regime change.

Sadri argues the country’s makeup is inherently contradictory and therefore unstable.

“Deep within Iran’s authoritarian system there is a tiny democratic heart, complete with elective, presidential and parliamentary chambers, desperately beating against an unyielding, theocratic exoskeleton,” Sadri wrote on aljazeera.com on Monday.

That heartbeat helps prolong the system, but the constitution grants ultimate power to the Supreme Leader, including control of the judiciary, armed forces and veto power over who can run for office, so “the democratically elected president and parliament (let alone the media and ordinary citizens) have no prayer of checking the powers of the Supreme Leader.”

That inevitably leads to building tensions that erupt in spontaneous demonstrations of people’s frustrations, says Sadri.

In the current crisis, there have been no signs of defections from the regime’s power base, the Revolutionary Guards, and ominous signals a severe crackdown is looming. So chances are, sadly, this likely will not end well.

In the aftermath, according to Sadri, the cycle of repression and building frustration will begin anew.