Grits have ‘a challenging circle to square’

The MP the Liberals could least afford to lose, but did, put the practical political dilemma facing the government and the nation in fairly clear terms this week.

“There’s a very challenging circle to square here. A majority of Canadians on election night voted very clearly for the completion of the Trans Mountain (pipeline) expansion. A very strong majority of Canadians also voted for more vigorous ambition with respect to climate change,” Ralph Goodale said Thursday at a gathering in Ottawa of defeated and elected federal Liberals.

Goodale was the Liberals’ best hope in the resource-rich west — Alberta and Saskatchewan — but couldn’t deliver Regina-Wascana, the riding he’s held since 1993, against a western tide of anger over Liberal energy and environmental policies. With Goodale’s loss, the Liberals are left without a single member in the two western oil and gas-producing provinces.

Just a couple of days before Goodale’s observation, more than 11,000 climate scientists from all over the planet wrote the world a letter leaving no doubt that, from the perspective of science, the “challenging circle” can’t be squared.

“We should leave remaining stocks of fossil fuels in the ground,” wrote the scientists. “The world must quickly implement massive energy efficiency and conservation practices and must replace fossil fuels with low-carbon renewables.”

In the same letter, the Alliance of World Scientists noted that only 14 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attract a carbon price and, at an average of just US$15.25 per tonne, that price is inadequate. They want all global carbon emissions to attract a much higher price in order to discourage consumption.

None of what the scientists had to say would have found much favour with Alberta

Premier Jason Kenney, Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe, or federal Conservative leader — until further notice — Andrew Scheer.

They don’t have the science or the scientists behind them, but those guys will continue to advocate for national programs and policies that bring back the halcyon days when the proceeds from oil and gas were making westerners wealthy and, whether we care to admit it or not, driving economic expansion across the land.

The Liberals still govern, albeit with a minority, so it falls to them to somehow square the circle, or perhaps more accurately, bridge the divide between aggressive action on the climate front and the economic aspirations of western Canadians, which remain firmly anchored in oil and gas extraction.

Neither time nor the tide of public opinion is on their side.

We can expect to see more, and more urgent, warnings from the scientific community that is growing increasingly frustrated by the dithering of political leaders in the face of mounting evidence that climate change is accelerating as GHG emissions continue to rise.

As we’ve seen over the past few years, the science is driving public opinion which in turn is placing increasing pressure on political leaders to get serious about climate change.

Meanwhile, out in the oil patch, Albertans and their neighbours in Saskatchewan wonder why their oil and gas industries should suffer while most of the world’s oil and gas producers continue to rake in massive profits, virtually unabated by concerns over climate change.

It is a good question, for which there is as yet not a good answer.

All of this is to say that the division between Canadians who are demanding aggressive measures to combat climate change and those who rely on the oil and gas sector for their livelihoods seems more likely to deepen than disappear.

The tension between those competing interests will, almost certainly, dominate the political life of the nation for the duration of the Liberals’ minority government.

Catherine McKenna was Environment

Minister throughout the Liberals’ first term and is expected to remain there when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces his new cabinet on Nov. 20. Her future in the job was virtually guaranteed when Jason Kenney said she should be replaced.

“When we talk about the environment and the economy going together, we actually mean it. Of course we need to figure out how to bring the country together. There is no bigger issue than national unity. But we also need to tackle climate change and we can do this,” McKenna said this week.

Like her colleague Ralph Goodale, McKenna obviously has a grasp of the rather daunting challenges that await the new, minority Liberal government.

We can only hope they come up with some solutions that are a bit more substantial than “we can do this.”