Pitching in high demand
Trade deadline boosts demand for pitchers
Who is in? Who is out? Who is buying? Who is selling? The baseball season’s truth-telling moment is upon us. It’s that snapshot in time where the front offices of so many clubs have to face reality and declare that hope has left town.
For some clubs, it’s easy. It’s been their destiny since the end of April. But if you’re the Seattle Mariners or the New York Yankees or the Pittsburgh Pirates are you really ready to let go? How those teams act this weekend will tell us how honestly they’ve assessed their own chances.
The non-waiver trade deadline, which occurs this year on Monday August 1, forces everybody into a decision because it’s almost impossible to ride the fence.
Because we don’t have any skin in the game, it’s easy to reduce the MLB playoff pool to 14 teams, seven in each league.
Six of those 14 teams will eventually be division winners and head directly into the Division Championship playoff pool. The other eight teams are going to fight it out for four wild card spots, two in each league. The wild card spots are little more than lottery tickets. Win one game and you join the final eight.
Friday night, the Orioles and Blue Jays, two of the 14 teams who are definitely in the hunt, and as such are trying to be buyers, square off in the start of a key three-game series. The Jays are trailing the O’s by a couple of games.
While the two teams go at it on the field, they are competing against each other off it. Both teams are offensive powerhouses, though neither has come out of the All-Star break with guns blazing. And both teams are very much involved in the pursuit of pitching help, especially starters, prior to the deadline.
Unlike other seasons, the quality of pitchers available on the trade market is thin, yet the demand is high. Proof of that arrived two weeks ago when the Boston Red Sox traded away a premier prospect, shortstop Anderson Espinoza, to get lefthanded starter Drew Pomeranz, a lukewarm talent, at best. Red Sox boss David Dombrowski accurately assessed the market, swallowed hard, and paid the price. Since then, no additional starting pitcher dominos have fallen but once the logjam is broken at the top, you can expect plenty of business to get done, even as the GMs themselves recognize that values are skewed toward the sellers.
Who are we talking about? Well here’s a sampling of starting pitchers who could be had.
Rentals
• Rich Hill, Oakland. Forget that anyone could have signed him last fall. The A’s did and now they have a highly-desirable asset. He’s nursing a blister on his pitching hand, but hopes to be able to make his start on Sunday, an ultimate showcase before the deadline. • Andrew Cashner, San Diego. He beat the Blue Jays 4-2 in his last start for San Diego, settling in after a rocky first inning. He has a mediocre 4.76 ERA over 16 starts but has a career ERA one run lower than that. • Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia. He’s made 21 starts with a 3.65 ERA, which is about a run, on average, better than any of his work over the last three years. Phils want a top-five prospect for him, or they’ll keep him and hope they get a draft pick for him.
• Ivan Nova, Yankees. Over his last three seasons, Nova has made 35 starts, logging 208 innings with a 5.20 ERA. Yikes.
Expensive, but controllable
• Ervin Santana, Minnesota. Santana is signed for two more years at $13.5 million each. His numbers are OK (19 starts, 3.76 ERA) but there may be some lingering resentment in the Jays clubhouse that he reneged on promise to come here two years ago. • Ian Kennedy, Kansas City. Just seven of his 20 starts have been quality starts. Not what you want from a guy who is still owed $62.5 million over the next four seasons. Controllable (multiple years) • Chris Archer, Tampa Bay. Signed through 2020. This season aside, he’s one of the good young arms in baseball. The Rays will want a ton in return, and nobody’s sure if they’re serious about moving him.
• Chris Sale, Chicago. White Sox have options on his through 2019. Maybe the best lefthander in the American League and it’s going to take blockbuster quality to get him.
• Sonny Gray, Oakland. Like Archer, Gray is not having his best season but he’s worth a gamble. The price tag will be off the charts.
• Matt Shoemaker, L.A. Angels. Good, solid middle of the rotation arm with some upside. You get four years of control in addition to a career 3.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP.
• Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay. There is still plenty of upside with the lefty who has two more years of arbitration left.
• Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay. Having a good season on a bad team. Still plenty of upside for this righthander under contract through 2019.
• Matt Moore, Tampa Bay. The Rays are not likely to trade more than one or two pitchers. Moore is the most expensive of the four but there’s value here. He has escalating options starting in 2017 ($7 million), 2018 ($9 million) and 2019 ($10 million).
Controllable (one year)
• Hector Santiago, L.A. Angels. Almost identical numbers and quality as Shoemaker. He’s a solid No. 3 or No. 4 in most rotations. Free agent after 2017. • Nathan Eovaldi, Yankees. Availability is not clear. Yankees on the fence so far. Big fastball is under control through 2017. • Michael Pineda, Yankees. Injuries have kept him from reaching his potential, but he’s enjoying a decent season. Leads AL in K/9 at 10.7. Free agent after 2017.
• Edinson Volquez, Kansas City. Hardly a friend of he Blue Jays, but Volquez has reinvented himself with the Royals. He has a $10-million option on 2017.