Approaching the finish line
Taking stock of the Raptors with seven games left to play
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
First the obvious: For the fourth consecutive year there will be playoff basketball in Toronto.
That became a certainty with that win Saturday in Dallas but really there wasn’t much doubt since that 22-8 start to the season.
What remains to be seen is how high or how low in the standings they will finish.
As it stands now the Raptors cannot sink lower than sixth and for that to happen Toronto would have to lose all final seven games on the schedule and the Hawks would have to go 6-1 to tie them and since they own the head-tohead tiebreaker to vault them in the standings past Toronto. That would knock the Raps down to fifth. If Milwaukee won all seven they would finish a game ahead of the Raptors and knock them down to sixth. That’s the worst case scenario. The best case scenario could see the Raptors still finish first in the Conference but with three teams ahead of them, don’t hold your breath.
Washington appears “catchable” for third given their tough schedule which includes a game Friday in Utah and then back in Oakland to visit the red-hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday.
The Wizards have been relatively hot of late themselves until a loss in LA to the Clippers Wednesday night. Prior to that they had won four in a row including a big win against Cleveland.
Heading into play Friday the Raps are a game back of Washington for third and three games back of both Boston and Cleveland who are tied for the Conference lead. All eight playoff teams in the East have seven games remaining with one exception. Cleveland has nine left to play.
The next question is what kind of shape is the team in going into the playoffs.
A return of Kyle Lowry to the playing floor will change the answer to that dramatically but as of now no one with any real knowledge of his condition is willing to offer up a potential return date.
What we know is Lowry has been with the team since his surgery with few exceptions. He did not make the one-game trip to Detroit because staying behind and working out with staff was better use of his time.
But he has been with them for every other game since his Feb. 28th surgery.
We also know according to head coach Dwane Casey that he is shooting with his surgically repaired right wrist and has been working hard behind the scenes to return.
The fact that no one is willing to provide any kind of time line would normally seem odd but this team is notorious for giving the most vague updates when it comes to injuries in the league. It’s not even clear if the Raptors believe they gain a competitive advantage with this approach or whether it’s a privacy issue for them. Either way it’s rather unique in the NBA and it doesn’t look like that approach will change any time soon.
The betting is Lowry returns in time to at least get his feet wet before the playoff run. It would only make sense given the team has changed somewhat dramatically in his absence with the addition of two players, one who has been starting since he got here in Serge Ibaka and another in P.J. Tucker who could yet find his way into the starting five before Lowry returns.
As high as Lowry’s basketball IQ is and as closely as he has monitored the team’s play with the new guys involved there is still going to be a period of adjustment for both him and the team to which he returns. Doing that before pivotal playoff games would be preferable.
Other than Lowry’s injuries, the only other concerns would be with DeMarre Carroll and Patrick Patterson. Both have been sidelined with injury at times this year and both are back and playing now but neither seems remotely close to 100 per cent. Patterson has a knee/thigh issue that has been troublesome almost all season. He has sat out 16 games with the issue and while he’s been back and playing regularly since Feb. 15 he is not doing so at close to 100 per cent.
Carroll’s issues are cumulative and range from his back to his ankle to his surgically repaired knee. He too has been gutting it through most of the year but is believed to have been playing hurt most of the year.
The return of a healthy Lowry though will have the biggest impact on how far this team goes in the playoffs.
Finally there is the current state of the team. What kind of rhythm are they in right now?
On this front there is both good news and some concern. Defensively they have shown that the kind of defensive mindset necessary to be a good playoff team and one that can go deep is there.
The arrival of Ibaka and Tucker has certainly pushed that in the right direction and their willingness, even eagerness to do what it takes in this area of the game has been somewhat contagious.
The concern is it’s not an all-thetime frame of mind.
First quarters in particular have been this team’s bugaboo all season. It’s the only quarter all season in which the Raptors are a cumulative negative. And the issue has been more of a defensive one than an offensive one.
Consider the Raps give up an average of 28.3 points a night in the first quarter. That’s more than two points higher than the average of any of the other three quarters.
It’s been happening all year and it puts the team in a consistent hole. Head coach Dwane Casey talks often about how it puts the opposition in rhythm, something the Raptors have been able to overcome quite often with a blistering fourth quarter — easily their best on a nightly basis with few exceptions — but it’s an early deficit the coach and the players’ themselves would like to avoid.
There’s not much time remaining but this too can be addressed in the final seven games.