Predicting the Junos
Who should win and who will win in Ottawa this weekend
It’s time for the Canadian music industry to honour its stars in the 46th annual Juno Awards.
The main event will be televised live on CTV and CTV GO on Sunday, from Ottawa’s Canadian Tire Centre. Co-hosted by comedian Russell Peters and rocker Bryan Adams, the show is brimming with performers, including Billy Talent, Dallas Smith, July Talk, Arkells, A Tribe Called Red, Alessia Cara, Ruth B, Shawn Mendes, Strumbellas, Canadian Music Hall of Fame inductee Sarah McLachlan, and Feist, featured in a tribute to Leonard Cohen.
There are so many performers, it won’t leave much time for many of the 44 awards to be handed out on camera. As in past years, most of the trophies will be presented during a gala dinner on Saturday, leaving just a half dozen or so for the broadcast. Here’s a look at how the nominees are determined in some of the top categories, with predictions, both wishful and realistic, as to who will nab the hardware:
Single
Nominees in this category are determined by their most popular song, based on digital downloads, radio spins and streams, then members of the Canadian Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences cast votes for the winner.
Contenders: Teen heartthrob Shawn Mendes’ Treat You Better, a Bieberesque tale of an abusive relationship; Drake’s throbbing chart-topper One Dance featuring Wizkid & Kyla, named the 2016 song of the summer by Billboard magazine; Alessia Cara’s carefree celebration of youth, Wild Things; The Weeknd’s transformative collaboration with Daft Punk, Starboy; and folk-rockers Strumbellas’ joyful U.S. breakthrough, Spirits, which made it to the top of Billboard’s alternative songs chart.
Wishful: Strumbellas for two reasons: No. 1, Spirits is a ridiculously infectious and accessible tune, and No. 2, it’s great to see a band that has slogged it out across the country earn wider recognition.
Realistic: Drake’s One Dance because of his global star power, not to mention the industry boost of Billboard’s stamp of approval.
Album
Nominees are based on sales, or rather, “consumption,” which is determined through a process that includes album sales, single sales and streaming data.
Contenders: Starboy, the hit album by Abel Tesfaye aka The Weeknd; Shawn Mendes’ coming-of-age balladry on Illuminate; Leonard Cohen’s final masterpiece, Darker; Drake’s Grammynominated, multi-platinum, fourth, full-length, Views; and Celine Dion’s Encore un Soir, her first Frenchlanguage studio album since 2012.
Wishful: The deep-voiced poet Leonard Cohen, for writing a bleak but stellar album in his 80s. It was released a month before his death.
Realistic: It’s a popularity contest and Drizzy wins.
Artist
To come up with nominees for the artist of the year, it’s a mix of sales/consumption, industry votes and Next Big Sound data, which includes social media analytics. In other words, numbers count, but so does the human factor. The trophy has gone to The Weeknd for the past two years in a row. Will he make it three for three?
Contenders: Sensitive teen heartthrob Shawn Mendes, rap superstar Drake, pop sweetheart Alessia Cara, the late legend Leonard Cohen, and Se lena Gomez’ s new squeeze, The Weeknd.
Wishful: Alessia Cara for proving you don’t have to sexualize your image to be successful in showbiz. Talent has taken her a long way in a short time.
Realistic: Academy members have a track record of following their hearts in casting votes in this category, often rewarding the art- ist whose story grabs their heartstrings. This year, that would be Leonard Cohen.
Songwriter
To be eligible, individual songwriters or a songwriting team, submit three songs, which are screened by a committee in two rounds of voting, then handed over to a judge to determine the nominees. The winner is selected by CARAS voters.
Contenders: The field ranges from Leonard Cohen’s final material from You Want it Darker, to the first songs written by Edmonton newcomer Ruth B, who has yet to release a full-length album. It also includes Vancouver popmeisters Tegan and Sara, rootsy Sarnia
native Donovan Woods and the Tragically Hip’s Gord Downie, who gets the nod for tracks on his solo project, The Secret Path. Wishful: One of these years, Tegan and Sara should get this award to reward the evolution of their songwriting over eight albums.
Realistic: Downie will have the emotional vote. As every Canadian knows, the Hip singer was diagnosed with incurable brain cancer, and then last year, put out the powerful Secret Path, drawing attention to the issue of residential schools. His songs tell the story of Chanie Wenjack, the young indigenous boy who ran away from residential school in Kenora 50 years ago and died trying to make it home.