Opportunities ahead for the NDP in Ontario

Last year, Canada’s most important election was in British Columbia, where Christy Clark and her tired and scandal-plagued Liberal government was replaced by John Horgan and his New Democrats.

It has had national impact. Hogan is pushing Ottawa on affordable childcare and housing. He’s holding a referendum on proportional representation. He’s opposing the Trans Mountain pipeline. These new directions change the dynamics of First Ministers meetings and create models for other leaders to follow. Premiers matter.

This year another tired and scandal-plagued government will likely be defeated — Kathleen Wynne’s Ontario Liberals. And whoever comes next might also have national impact.

After 13 years in power, the Wynne Liberals are the strongest argument against their own re-election. Poll after poll shows Wynne is deeply unpopular. Many Ontarians have concluded Wynne’s mistakes cannot be condoned by again voting for the Liberals.

For months, the Ontario Progressive Conservatives have been positioning themselves as a lesser evil. Patrick Brown was working to soften edges, be bland and keep attention focused on Wynne. If it all worked, the PCs’ slogan would be “we’re better than Wynne” and they would float into power on voters’ assumptions it couldn’t be false.

The PCs’ lesser evil strategy is also why PC pundits have spent considerable time talking-down Andrea Horwath and her New Democrats. The PCs need voters to rule out Horwath so they can claim leadership of the big pool of ‘never again Wynne’ voters.

But with the recent defenestration of PC Leader Patrick Brown, the PCs have broken into factionalism, infighting and chaos. It’s not clear the PCs will have the party unity needed to run an effective election campaign, which starts in May.

The PCs’ problems aren’t just organizational. The Brown story seems to have some voters thinking the Liberals and the PCs are equal evils. A recent poll by Innovative Research Group shows voters moving into the undecided column. Forum has found 27 per cent of PC supporters say they are more likely to vote for a different party because of the Brown scandal.

This chaos and the voter shift now allow Horwath to claim leadership of the change vote. Voters like Horwath, who regularly tops leadership approval ratings. If she can rally a more hopeful mood of change, voters planning to settle for the lesser evil might instead give Horwath a path to the Premier’s office.

Her election would bring a welcome change to Canada’s political direction just as the federal Liberals are thinking hard about how to position for election 2019.