Trudeau’s grand plan falling apart

Provincial battle over Kinder Morgan pipeline threatens his green credentials

Sometimes leadership means recognizing that a train in the distance is headed straight at you and doing something about it before you are forced to jump out of the way.

For Justin Trudeau, the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion train has been bearing down on him and his government for close to a year, yet it has been allowed to become a crisis worthy of an extraordinary cabinet meeting and an interprovincial fight that should concern all Canadians.

For all the prime minister’s talk about how the economy and the environment go hand-in-hand, sometimes they become detached and action is needed, not a continuation of a Goldilocks not-too-hot, not-too-cold mantra that works as a sound bite, but not always as policy.

Trudeau has allowed himself to be held hostage by a Texas-based energy corporation so tone deaf it issued an ultimatum on the project as this nation was mourning the Humboldt Broncos tragedy in Saskatchewan, and a rookie premier who signalled a year ago he would do exactly what he is doing today.

John Horgan is defending the British Columbia coast against increased tanker traffic, and whether or not one believes he has the right to hold up a project Trudeau has declared to be in the “national interest,” he is doing precisely what he promised he would do if elected.

Immediately after his election, there was rampant speculation that he would try to run out the clock to make the entire pipeline twinning project unpalatable to Kinder Morgan.

So here we are, a defining moment for the Trudeau government, with the clock ticking; a defining moment which Trudeau has largely brought upon himself.

Trudeau watched as Horgan and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley ratcheted up a trade war, and Kinder Morgan should not have shocked anyone when it finally decided it couldn’t continue to pour money into a project that has been continually stalled.

The Liberals, having already killed the Northern Gateway pipeline, watched Energy East die and their grand bargain with Notley rested with the Trans Mountain project.

Trudeau needed Notley and her environmental initiative to sell his national climate change plan. Notley needed a pipeline win as her quid pro quo, a lifeline which could win her re-election.

That grand plan is falling apart. With Jason Kenney waiting in the wings in Alberta, and Doug Ford looking covetously at Queen’s Park, that national plan faces further peril.

It is important to remember how a campaigning Trudeau promised to deal with pipelines and other resource development compared to where he stood Tuesday.

On “social licence,” the Liberal platform read: “While governments grant permits for resource development, only communities can grant permission.”

That was modified a year into the mandate with a more broad definition that dealt with consultation and dropped any reference to permission.

Also, from the 2015 platform was a promise to Indigenous Canadians that they would be full partners on resource projects: “This will ensure on project reviews and assessments, the Crown is fully executing its consultation, accommodation and consent obligations, in accordance with its constitutional and international human rights obligations, including Aboriginal and treaty rights and the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.”

The Conservative opposition does itself no favours as it takes aim at Trudeau. Conservative MPs have been hit by a collective amnesia that makes them forget 10 years of Stephen Harper championing various pipelines accomplished nothing more than irritating official Washington and an infamous Harper declaration that Obama’s approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, was a “nobrainer.”

When Harper OK’d the Northern Gateway pipeline, no one from his government would stand in front of a camera to back the decision. It was left to wither until Trudeau mercifully killed it.

With two NDP governments at war, federal leader Jagmeet Singh has effectively gone to ground, refusing to stand up to Notley or Horgan.

Trudeau’s tool box remains more formidable than Horgan’s and federal action should win the day. This is a federal project that can’t be held up by a province.

But to get there, Trudeau is going to have to force an unpopular pipeline expansion by bulldozing it past a provincial government, Indigenous leaders and protesters.

Trudeau will expend much more than political capital. He will have his green bona fides shattered.

And he still might end up having to deal with Kenney and Ford in 2019.

A plan that looked so sound on paper has fallen apart on the ground.

Tim Harper is a former Star reporter who is a current freelance columnist based in Toronto. Follow him on Twitter: @nutgraf1