Trump fires the starting gun in new arms race
The world lurched a few, frightening steps closer to Armageddon this week when Donald Trump abandoned America’s nuclear arms deal with Iran.
Far from being, in the president’s words, “the worst deal ever,” the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was achieving its most important goal.
It had halted Iran’s relentless march to building and amassing the nuclear arsenal that would make it a regional hegemon and global power.
To be sure, this had not prevented Iran from intervening militarily in conflicts in Syria and Yemen or meddling in Lebanon’s latest election.
But whatever the agreement’s detractors can claim about Iran’s malevolent ambitions, they cannot deny that, in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions against it, this aggressive, theocratic troublemaker had put its nuclear weapons program on ice.
Nor can they ignore how this concession minimized the threat of nuclear war, both by restraining Iran and providing a case study on how to forestall an arms race.
These were major accomplishments that strengthened a global order governed by laws, treaties — and peaceful negotiations between enemies who might otherwise stumble into war.
Now Trump has shattered that order like a human wrecking ball. The U.S. has broken its word with Iran and will impose harsh sanctions on it once again.
The most obvious fallout from this decision came in Iran’s announcement that it may restart its nuclear program. This would be tragic. International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors as well as Trump’s own defence officials have verified that, until now, Iran has honoured the agreement.
This compliance might quickly change. Iran wants Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the European Union, which also signed the original deal, to help it cope with the new sanctions.
If assistance isn’t forthcoming, Iran’s dictatorial rulers could give a green light to acquiring nuclear weapons.
The aftershocks of Trump’s decision go further. Fearing the nuclear aspirations of its regional rival, Saudi Arabia may feel tempted to join the nuclearpower club.
North Korea, which is prepared to at least discuss its nuclear weapons program with the U.S., may now question the value of those talks. What’s the good of making a deal with Trump if it can so easily be undone by presidential whims?
More ominously, Russian President Vladimir Putin might experience new doubts of his own. In three years, an agreement to limit the nuclear stockpiles of Russia and the U.S. will expire unless the two countries extend it. How much faith can Russia put in the U.S. today?
Even America’s closest European allies have new cause to doubt it. The British, French and Germans want the agreement with Iran to continue. As they struggle to make this happen, they know the new American sanctions on Iran could punish European businesses that want to trade with Iran.
Meanwhile, like everyone else these days, they will find it increasingly difficult to trust a Trump-led America.
In rejecting a reasoned, reasonable deal with Iran, Trump has kept a promise to his voter base, pleased Israel and Saudi Arabia and — something he dearly loves to do — axed one of the signature initiatives of his White House predecessor, Barack Obama.
The momentary satisfaction this personally brings him is nothing measured against the years of fear and uncertainty he has just unleashed on the citizens of this world.