What to do with William?
TORONTO — It seems, now, that there is almost a daily update on William Nylander and his contract impasse with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
These past few days have seen Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas visit Nylander in Europe. Dubas was also seen talking to Nylander’s agent, Louis Gross, at Madison Square Garden on the weekend.
These developments are all good indications of potential traction in the talks that have now extended past 120 days, and have cost Nylander nine games so far in the NHL season.
So, here’s a look at what’s up and where the talks and contract may be going:
The numbers:
Eight million dollars a year for Nylander? Leafs counter as low as somewhere between US$5 million and $6 million, and as high as between $6.5 million to $7.5 million.
The terms:
Two- to four-year bridge contact; but Nylander appears to be holding out for a longer deal, at six to eight years.
Is Nylander dreaming?
No. This may be the only chance in his career to get a longterm deal, and he’d be gambling with health, future markets and the potential of a work stoppage when the current collective bargaining agreement expires in 2020, if he turned away from a long-term deal and settled for a bridge contract. Nylander’s father, Michael, is also a part of the talks; the elder Nylander has six children, played for seven NHL teams, and was traded five times. He also played for three AHL teams and 14 European clubs — so he knows the contexts of a long-term contract and in getting the dollar figure the player feels is appropriate.
The Nylander camp will have to come down in money value to get a deal done. It appears a bridge deal has supplanted a long-term deal as the priority in the talks now.
Why Nylander should accept a bridge contract:
At 21, he would still be in a favourable position to pursue free agency at a still young age, and on solid ground in terms of a high-dollar, term deal on his next contract, if he continues to produce at the NHL level. If he signs a bridge deal at $5 million to $6 million a year, he would be earning on par with Winnipeg’s Nik Ehlers (seven years,
$42 million). That’s $6 million a year and, in making comparisons, Ehlers in his age 21 year in the NHL (last season) played all 82 games, with 60 points (29 goals, 31 assists); Nylander, in his age 21 season (also last year), played 82 games, with 61 points (20 goals and 41 points).
In addition, Nylander’s friend David Pastrnak signed a six-year deal with Boston with an AAV of $6.67 million. The comparables are solid, and Nylander’s compensation would put him on even grounds with the top under-22 forwards in the NHL, should he accept something north of $6 million annually.
Why Nylander should hold out:
Nylander is in a unique position, and making comparables is a worthwhile practice, but is not a defining parameter. The question Nylander could pose to the Leafs is value in terms of what he means to the team moving forward. In other words, will his current replacements in the lineup — Par Lindholm, Tyler Ennis and Kaspari Kapanen — project out to cover his points potentials for this year, next year and the next several seasons.
Kapanen, it’s arguable, could — but Lindholm and Ennis, it’s comfortable to say, won’t. Then there’s the impact on Nazem Kadri: Regardless of Kadri’s slow start, and the fact Kadri has rebounded from a slow start to score 32 goals in each of the past two seasons, there is a very real situation within the current Leafs roster that Kadri is showing results of being out of his normal role (as a matchup centre), and playing without a high-scoring winger.
Nylander, if he’s back in the fold, should restore the Leafs vision of having three scoring lines, at the least. His impact and future projections are arguably more significant than metrics and line chemistry — he’s an extremely important piece to the puzzle right now, and that weight will only go up if the Leafs’ highoctane offence falls back to earth.
In addition, his age is a huge factor in terms of contract and impact. As seen with Jon Klingberg’s contract in Dallas, a sevenyear, $29.7-million signing, the Stars bought Klinberg at 23 years old — giving them cost certainty beyond the player’s UFA years and a player in the prime of his career. Health, based on youth, is a factor Nylander could feature in the decision-making process.
Why won’t the Leafs just pay him?
Toronto has a very strong vision of taking the game forward, based on speed and puck movement, from every player, forwards and defencemen. But they are also forced into a situation where they must be very smart in managing their cap, not only for this season, but for the next several years.
Right now, there’s an argument that the contracts of Nikita Zaitsev (seven years, $31 million), and Patrick Marleau (three years, $18 million) are hurting their ability to sign Nylander and, by extension, what they can do with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Jake Gardiner. Something has to give: either Nylander signs closer to where the Leafs value him at, or the club has to look at shedding some current bodies to fit its core of young talent into the financial future. The real situation here may be what Matthews and Marner will seek. Matthews is ideally situated to become the NHL’s highest-paid player, and that could see him at least seek the maximum dollar figure allowed, which is 20 per cent of the cap. The cap is currently $79.5 million, which means that figure is $15.9 million per season. That seems outlandish, given Connor McDavid and the perception that he took a team discount to play for Edmonton at 12 years with an AAV of $12.5 million.
It should also be noted that it’s believed Matthews would be open to signing an extension in season, while Marner (through his agent) has said he would like to leave his contract situation alone until the off-season. Basically, the Leafs could get into more problematic waters, in allowing contracts for their young superstars to extend far into next season.
Trades, anyone?
It’s easy to see several teams make offers on Nylander. But what works in a trade, and more importantly, do the Leafs realize equal potential and production for any player they get in a Nylander deal?
The popular thinking has the Leafs focusing on a young defenceman and a draft pick for Nylander.
If that’s the case, who in the organization replaces Nylander’s 20- to 30-goal potential? The Leafs defence could redefine how NHL teams assemble their blue line, breaking away from the traditional ideals of having big, physically superior players.
That blue line is already growing closer to the franchise’s vision for it. Beyond that, the forward corps is not — it’s currently a shortened version of a four-line group with speed and skill on all lines. The end game, in any Nylander deal, would be to take the best trade available.
So, what now?
The Leafs must sign Nylander by Dec. 1 or he loses the season.