Guatemala migrant deal with U.S. could bring crisis

MEXICO CITY — In pressuring Guatemala to accept a deal to absorb vast numbers of asylum seekers, the Trump administration has embarked on a dramatic and risky strategy to slash the number of Central Americans flooding the U.S. border.

The “safe third country” accord — which was negotiated in secret and signed at the White House on Friday — could plunge Guatemala’s young democracy into a constitutional crisis, analysts warn. It could also saddle one of the hemisphere’s poorest countries with tens of thousands of Salvadoran and Honduran migrants who would be barred from making their claims in the United States.

The agreement is one of the boldest steps yet taken by U.S. President Donald Trump to stanch the flow of migrants to the U.S. border. It aims to close the U.S. asylum system to the migrants who have crossed through Guatemala en route to the U.S. They would instead have to seek protection in Guatemala.

But the agreement is built on a fragile political and legal base.

Guatemala’s Constitutional Court ruled earlier this month that President Jimmy Morales needed approval from the Guatemalan Congress to sign the accord — something he has not received. He has sharply criticized the court decision, saying on Friday that “as far as we understand, this doesn’t have to go before Congress.”

Some analysts said Morales could get around the ruling with his argument that the deal is simply a co-operation agreement, not a treaty.

“This leaves a legacy we won’t be able to recover from, that the country’s constitution can be flagrantly violated without any kind of reaction or penalty,” said Renzo Rosal, an independent political consultant.

The agreement is also likely to be challenged in U.S. courts by opponents who say that Guatemala does not qualify as a “safe” country, because of high levels of violence.

The deal has little political support in Guatemala. Morales, who finishes his four-year term in January, is highly unpopular. Among the top Twitter hashtags in Guatemala in recent days has been #Jimmyvendepatrias — Jimmy the sellout — as a dig at the country’s leader.

On Saturday, hundreds of people protested the agreement in front of the presidential palace in Guatemala City, the Associated Press reported. The protesters called for Morales’s resignation.

Guatemalan analysts have suggested Morales made the deal with Trump in hopes of winning support from the U.S. government. Morales faces allegations of financial crimes related to his 2015 electoral campaign but has been shielded by presidential immunity, which he loses in January. He says he is innocent.

Morales said the agreement would help Guatemala by “putting us in a privileged position” with the country’s top trading partner and most important ally.

Guatemala holds a run-off presidential election on Aug. 11, and both candidates have criticized Morales’s negotiation of such a broad agreement in secret.

While the next government could cancel the agreement, it would face pressure from the Trump administration not to do so. Morales’s government signed the pact after Trump threatened severe penalties — tariffs, a travel ban or taxes on the billions of dollars in remittances sent home by migrants in the U.S.

Guatemala is the No. 1 source of irregular migration to the U.S., with citizens fleeing poverty, violence, low coffee prices and drought.