COVID expected to kill thousands
Ontario toll somewhere between 3,000 and 15,000 with stringent measures
TORONTO — As known COVID-19 cases rose nationally and almost all construction in the country’s economic heartland was idled on Friday, health authorities in Ontario said the death toll in the province alone could be kept below a still-staggering 15,000 — if stringent isolation measures prove effective in curbing the pandemic.
In a sobering presentation, a top health official said the coronavirus might have killed as many as 100,000 people in Ontario had economy crushing restrictions not been imposed.
“If we do everything that we can think of
— everything that already has been done stays in place (and) all of the other measures which are being considered (are) put in place — I think we could reduce the death toll in Ontario to somewhere between 3,000 and 15,000,” said Dr. Peter Donnelly, head of Public Health Ontario.
The latest data indicate more than 12,000 Canadians have contracted the virus. Of those, about 180 have died, but the numbers could be higher given gaps in reporting.
Ontario released its worstcase projections for the
COVID-19 as its known caseload — and those of other provinces — climbed again. The province has now seen 3,255 cases and 67 deaths.
Given the “extremely serious” situation, Premier Doug Ford announced a halt to almost all industrial construction.
“We’ve told the vast majority of Ontario’s work force to stay home,” a grim Ford said. “Lives are on the line.”
The pandemic and the unprecedented stay-at-home measures to fight it have taken a brutal toll on the economy and jobs, with no sign of near-term improvement.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the latest in a string of federal measures to cushion the blow: More aid to low-income people will flow through the GST credit this month, rather than in May. Qualifying adults will receive up to $300, plus $150 for each child.
Trudeau also said the military would move into northern Quebec, at the province’s request, to help remote communities cope.
Canada’s top public health official, Dr. Theresa Tam, noted a sharp increase in deaths, but said the health-care system was coping. The national death rate stands at about one per cent of those testing positive.
British Columbia, with 31 deaths, had previously projected its worst case would see a shortage of about 182 intensive care beds and at least 38 ventilators. But it also said distancing measures appeared to have mitigated that threat. Donnelly said Ontario was more closely tracking the hard-hit United States than B.C. Overall mortality among those 80 years and older in Ontario
has reached 20 per cent in coronavirus cases.
Experts advise frequent handwashing and staying at least two metres from others to save the health-care system from overload. Front-line doctors have expressed worry about having to choose who lives and who dies if crucial ventilators run short.
The Canadian government confronted the ugly face of protectionism in the coronavirus pandemic Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered an end to American exports of much-needed N95 medical masks to Canada and Latin American markets.
Trudeau said Friday that Canada would not retaliate, and his officials had been working for several days to ensure the U.S. understands that trade in essential goods goes both ways across the border.
He said it would be “a mistake” to limit goods and essential personnel, and that 3M has indicated it understands the importance of fulfilling orders to countries like Canada.
“These are things that Americans rely on and it would be a mistake to create blockages,” Trudeau said, pointing to thousands of nurses and medical personnel from Windsor cross the border to work in Detroit every day.
“That is the point we’re making very clearly to the American administration right now,” he said, adding he believed the message was getting through. But Trudeau did not say whether he had personally tried to engage Trump on the crucial question, nor say how great a gap it would leave for Canadian companies.
“We continue to be confident that we are going to receive the necessary medical equipment,” Trudeau said.