No accurate COVID-19 models for Niagara, Hirji says
St. Catharines hospital reports two more deaths as local cases climb
Niagara’s medical officer of health says while provincial COVID-19 modelling revealed Friday predicts more than a thousand deaths over the next month in Ontario, there isn’t accurate modelling for the region.
Dr. Mustafa Hirji said while he has seen different modelling that includes Niagara, he doesn’t have full confidence in their predictions.
The problem, he said, is that most modelling needs a “worse-case” scenario to base its predictions on — that is, how many people may die if an infectious disease could spread through a population unhindered. But when it comes to the novel coronavirus, that is a tricky scenario to build.
“There isn’t a lot of data on something like COVID-19 because it is so new,” he said, noting the closest estimate is based on China’s experience from December to January when the virus first emerged and spread.
“So that is a three-week window for a new disease, so that modelling is quite difficult. It all produces that kind of range,” said Hirji, referring to provincial models predicting as many as 1,600 deaths in Ontario by the end of April without stricter infection control measures.
Hirji said public health in Niagara is turning to local case data, information gathered by public health investigators follow up on cases and information coming into the public health call centre, as a basis for decision making.
He said the call centre is still fielding 500 to 600 calls a day along with 100 online live chats with residents.
“That is really a tremendous effort and a lot of information coming in daily,” he said.
That data does not help Hirji predict the number of local deaths, but it does show Niagara is on the same trajectory as the rest of the province in terms of the growing number of confirmed cases.
With more cases, he says, will come more severe illness and deaths.
Hirji’s comments came as Niagara Health reported two more COVID-19 related deaths at the St. Catharines hospital. There have now been a total of six local coronavirus deaths at the hospital, which is Niagara Health’s COVID-19 treatment hub. Hirji would not say if there have been other COVID-19 deaths in Niagara outside the hospital.
However, he said residents can expect to see more information being released by public health starting Monday. He expects that information will include demographics such as the age ranges of patients, the sever
ity of cases and deaths to be reported.
He said a new database that will upload to the public health’s webpage is currently under construction.
There were 17 new confirmed COVID-19 in Niagara announced by public health Friday.
Hirji said six of them are travel-related, including three people who had been to the United States. Another seven cases were found by public health investigators doing contact tracing from past cases and four are community transmission with an unidentified source of infection.
According to Niagara Health, of the 25 people who have been hospitalized to date for COVID-19,
13 are currently being treated at the St. Catharines hospital.
To date, 19 people have recovered from COVID-19 and there are 74 active cases in the region, based on data released by public health and the hospital system.
Among the new cases announced Friday is a staff member at Alright Centre retirement home in Beamsville.
William ter Harmsel, the centre’s executive director, said a staff member exhibited symptoms 11 days ago and has been in isolation ever since with no contact with other staff or residents.
“Our residents are clear, which is important. They are all isolated and have been since the (provincial state of emergency) was declared,” ter Harmsel said. “We know that if our patients are going to contract COVID-19, it will be brought into the home from outside.”
Personal support workers and nurses are not being allowed to work in multiple residences, he said.
However, the restrictions on personal support workers who typically work at several residences and long-term care homes — along with those who cannot work if they have been infected — is putting strain on a care system that was already stressed.
“It is difficult in the best of times,” said ter Harmsel. “There was already a shortage of personal supporter workers so this is making that situation more difficult.”
Along with more limited supports, residents in homes like Albright cannot receive visitors.
Ter Harmsel said staff are helping residents connect with their family online and, like other homes, family come to wave to residents and hold up signs that can be seen through windows.
While the modelling released Friday by Peter Donnelly, president of Public Health Ontario, painted a sobering picture of COVID-19’s potential impact, he said it also showed physical distancing and other measures are working.
Donnelly said those measure have prevented some 4,400 potential deaths.
Hirji said there is a lag between the confirmation of new cases and knowing the impact of physical distancing and other measures on the COVID-19 infection rate.
He said the local impact of those measures may start to be seen next week if the number of confirmed cases starts to decline.