Signs of hope virus is slowing in Niagara
Two of worst outbreaks in long-term-care homes may be days from ending
As the Niagara long-term-care COVID-19 outbreak reaches its second week with another wave of confirmed cases, the region’s acting medical officer of health says buried in the data about infections and deaths is a glimmer of hope.
“I think test results (from long-term-care homes) still keep coming in early into next week, but certainly by midweek or the end of the week, we could be seeing the curve flatten out even more,” said Dr. Mustafa Hirji.
The Niagara curve, or the growth rate of COVID-19 infections, was on a flattening trend — meaning the daily increase of cases had begun to become constant — until the last few days when a burst of confirmed infections in long-term care and retirement homes pushed the numbers upward.
On Friday, for the third straight day, Niagara saw a marked increase in cases, up another 31 from Thursday, bringing the historic total of cases to 351 since March 13.
At least 27 people with COVID-19 have died and another 119 people have recovered from the virus locally. That leaves Niagara with at least 206 active coronavirus cases, with around 29 of them being treated at the St. Catharines hospital. The growth of confirmed cases is due to expanded testing in five local long-term-care homes — Lundy Manor in
Niagara Falls, Garden City Manor in St. Catharines, Albright Manor in Beamsville and Royal Rose and Seasons in Welland.
Of the new cases Friday, 28 of them were residents and staff in the homes.
Hirji said two of the homes with the worst outbreaks — Lundy Manor and Seasons — may be days away from having their outbreaks declared over as a result of better identification of cases along with enhanced infection control measures.
One home, Royal Rose in Welland, is still grappling with the crisis. There, 50 residents, out of a population of 96, and 38 staff have been infected. At least seven residents with the virus have died.
In total, 120 residents in those homes contracted the virus, comprising more than 34 per cent of the region’s total infections. Health-care workers make up more than 17 per cent of cases, with most of them staff at the residences.
Even so, Hirji said, the data isn’t entirely grim. Even with the new batch of cases, the rate at which COVID-19 infections are doubling in Niagara has slowed down. According to newly released public health data, on April 4, cases were doubling every three days. That rate has now slowed to every four days.
However, the spread of the virus in the community at large outside long-term-care homes has slowed down to doubling every six or seven days.
“Once we get these outbreaks handled, I think you could see the community daily growth to be in the single digits,” said Hirji, who said the flattening of Niagara’s curve is due to the public practising physical distancing and hand hygiene measures.
Indeed, public health data shows infections in Niagara related to travel abroad, or those with an unknown source, have fallen drastically in the last few weeks. Infections with a known source — and mostly connected to the outbreaks — have spiked over the same time period.
The data on who is getting sick further confirms how the virus is spreading locally. Public health data shows that since late March into April, Niagara residents 80 and over are becoming infected more than any other age bracket.
To get a better handle on the outbreaks, the public health department expanded its COVID-19 testing this week to include all long-term-care home staff and residents near those with confirmed infections, even if those people were not showing symptoms.
“What we have found, in fact, is that once we start interviewing those people, we find that they did have some very mild symptoms,” said Hirji.
On Friday, he said testing will now expand further to include all remaining residents in the homes, and any staff that have yet to be tested.