Poor countries face lockdown woes
Many developing nations want to avoid missteps in relaxing restrictions
BEIRUT—As some wealthier western countries begin easing coronavirus restrictions, many developing countries, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, want to do it, too, but they cannot afford the luxury of any missteps.
They lack the key tools — a sturdy economy, well-equipped hospitals and large-scale testing — that are needed for finding their way out of the pandemic.
Even a spirited public debate about an exit strategy, common now in Europe, seems unthinkable in countries battered by conflict, corruption or poverty.
Consider Lebanon, a tiny country teetering on the abyss of bankruptcy with a fragile health system and a restless population. A month-long lockdown has thrown tens of thousands more people into poverty, pressuring the government to loosen restrictions. But medical resources are limited, prompting doctors to call for continuing them, even at the risk of a social explosion.
It’s the same in many developing countries: easing lockdowns could increase infections and quickly overwhelm hospitals with limited beds and breathing machines. Keeping restrictions in place risks social upheaval and economic losses. At the same time, inadequate testing and a lack of transparency could lead to misguided decisions, said Rabah Arezki, chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank and a senior fellow at the Middle East Initiative.
Even wealthy countries have little room to manoeuver.
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, announced a slight easing of restrictions, including reopening most shops next week. But Chancellor Angela Merkel cautioned that restarting the economy too quickly could rapidly overwhelm its comparatively robust healthcare system.
Western countries also face a severe economic downturn, but the impact is softened by massive government rescue programs for businesses and struggling families, including $2.2 trillion (U.S.) in the United States. EU countries have agreed on a $550-billion package and are working on tax breaks and other measures to cushion the impact.
The global community is offering help to poorer countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it’s prepared to commit its $1 trillion in lending capacity to needy countries. The world’s richest countries agreed to temporarily freeze poor countries’ debt obligations, mainly in Africa.
Pakistan’s prime minister has gone further, appealing to richer countries and international financial institutions to write off the debts of poorer countries. The IMF gave Pakistan $1.5 billion in emergency financing to help absorb the impact of the pandemic.
In Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country, where one in three people lives in poverty, the government has opted for a partial lockdown that includes a nighttime curfew, fearing a full closure would devastate a fragile economy.
In Yemen, Libya and Syria, where years of conflict have led to humanitarian disasters, there is fear that the scope of the outbreak is unknown due to a lack of testing, supplies and trained professionals.
So far, the Middle East has over 181,000 reported cases of the coronavirus, with more than 6,900 deaths, most of them in Iran, the regional epicentre of the outbreak.
In Africa, the virus has been confirmed in 52 of 54 countries, and lockdowns appear to be choking the continent’s already vulnerable food supply. Africa has 18,792 cases and 967 deaths, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
South Africa, with the continent’s most cases, has been able to slow the pace of infections with a strict lockdown that will last at least through April. But Africa’s most industrialized economy was already in recession before the virus, and Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said restrictions must remain until the country can be sure to minimize the loss of life.