Data shows virus cases will double in a month
COVID-19 has claimed as many local lives as 2011 C. difficile outbreak
It will now take almost a month for the number of COVID-19 cases in Niagara to double, according to new data released by Niagara’s public health department.
Testing is increasing across the region, with hundreds of people tested each day, while the percentage of positive lab results has fallen — a reflection of the overall slowdown in local novel coronavirus infections.
The data shows Niagara continuing to inch its way out of the pandemic, but also shows the crushing impact on local longterm care and retirement homes, and highlights the fragility of progress it has taken a month of physical distancing and isolation to achieve.
“What we are seeing is that the number of travel-related cases and local transmissions (with an unknown cause) has fallen to almost nothing,” said Dr. Mustafa Hirji, Niagara’s acting medical officer of health. “If we can get that to happen in long-term-care homes, then we will really see those numbers start to fall.”
Friday saw 15 new confirmed COVID-19 cases added to its historical total, the majority of them coming from three longterm-care homes with large
and lethal outbreaks of the virus.
The new cases bring the cumulative total of Niagara residents infected with the virus to 427 since the first case was discovered at a St. Catharines retirement home on March 13.
In that time, 37 people with the virus have died — a number equalling the death toll from the 2011 C. difficile outbreaks in area hospitals.
It took five months for the C. difficile outbreak to claim that many lives. COVID-19 has done it in less than two.
Both the public health department and Niagara Health have sent teams to the local homes hit the hardest by COVID-19: Lundy Manor in Niagara Falls, Seasons in Welland and Royal Rose in Welland.
Royal Rose continues to have the most difficulty, with another 10 confirmed cases found in the home in the last two days. Forty-three staff members have been infected and 10 residents with the virus have died.
One home, Albright Manor in Beamsville, had its outbreak declared over Friday, making it the fourth long-term-care home to successfully battle back the virus.
Hirji said in those homes, the number of cases was limited. Two more homes had outbreaks declared this week — Henley House in St. Catharines and Woodlands of Sunset in Pelham. Hirji said both homes have only a small number of cases, but it will take a week at least to determine if the virus is spreading or has been contained.
The picture for the rest of Niagara is more positive, he said.
The rate at which local cases double has slowed down considerably, from eight days a week ago to 25 days as of Friday. Hirji said this is a function of the infection rate declining and the longer period it takes to double 427 cases, compared to the 351 from last week.
Niagara Health is now testing more than 250 people daily at its two COVID-19 testing sites. Around 4.8 per cent of the 6,200 people tested by the hospital system were found to have the virus. That compares to a provincial positive rate of about 5.5 per cent, Hirji said.