Hope can be found in rising COVID-19 numbers, says Hirji

Recent COVID-19 data seems unremittingly bleak. Cases on are the rise. For the first time in months, St. Catharines hospital has pandemic patients.

New restrictions on social bubbles, bars and long-termcare homes have been imposed with the province warning it is willing to do more to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus.

But in data that shows clusters of infections, new cases in schools and a rising second wave of COVID-19, Niagara’s top public health official said there are some silvering linings that should give residents hope and spur them to take action to tamp down the spread of the virus.

“I think there is some good news stories here,” said Dr. Mustafa Hirji, Niagara’s acting medical officer of health. “There are things that everyone can do.”

There were 18 new COVID-19 cases confirmed in the past 48 hours — further evidence of the rising tide of local novel coronavirus infections — and Hirji said it is not yet clear if the new average count will continue to rise into the double digits.

He said most of the cases are the products of social gatherings, largely, although not exclusively, attended by people under the age of 40.

“These are people getting together in their homes and in their backyards and that is how the virus is infecting people,”

Hirji said.

On the one hand, these cases are reflections of the scenario that Hirji has been warning about for weeks — social gatherings where people do not stay two metres apart and don’t wear masks are ideal places for the virus to find new hosts.

And for several weeks, data shows younger people are producing the majority of new cases.

But Hirji said where the cases are not coming from should give Niagara residents a sense of hope.

“They aren’t coming from gyms, or grocery stores or those kinds of businesses. They aren’t really coming from restaurants. When that is the case, it is mostly one person passing the virus to someone they are dining with, rather than the virus spreading around the restaurant.”

To Hirji, this suggests the Stage 3 economic reopening has largely been successful in Niagara and the increase of business activity following the most stringent lockdown has not yielded significant clusters of cases.

That means if residents follow infection control behaviours Niagara can bring its infection rate back down and avoid having the province close those businesses down for a second time.

“That is why I keep banging on that drum. Now is the time for people to really tighten up their social bubbles, not go to these gatherings and really bring these numbers back down.”

Hirji is not alone in his call for renewed public attention to infection control measures. This week, Niagara Health president Lynn Guerriero, and the hospital system’s chief infectious disease expert Dr. Karim Ali, urged the public to take COVID-19 prevention more seriously.

In a Tuesday interview, Guerriero said the hospital learned a great deal from the first wave of COVID-19 and have put into place measures to manage a second wave while still continuing to offer its usual services and surgeries.

During the first wave in the spring, Niagara Health shut down many services at its hospitals to limit the spread of COVID-19. Even so, there were several outbreaks during that period as the virus spread to staff and patients.

“I think we are very well prepared for a second wave,” Guerriero said. “It is our intention to continue to offer all our services and not shut them down.”

As of late Thursday, Niagara Health had three patients admitted to St. Catharines hospital’s designated COVID-19 ward for treatment. That brought the total number of new hospitalizations to four this week, with one patient being discharged Wednesday.

For months, the hospital had no COVID-19 patients as the community spread of the virus dropped.

The 18 cases over the past two days brings Niagara’s total COVID-19 case count since March to 1,082. Ninety-nine of those cases are active. Since March, at least 64 Niagara residents with the virus have died. The last death was announced on July 12.