Cluster of 20-somethings infect two care homes with COVID-19
At least two Niagara long-termcare homes saw outbreaks of COVID-19 this month as a result of a single cluster of 20somethings who have not been following pandemic safety protocols and brought the novel coronavirus into those facilities, The Standard has learned.
Dr. Mustafa Hirji, Niagara’s acting medical officer of health, said his department has been tracking the cluster of at least 30 young adults for nearly a month as they spread the virus from one person to the next, and from one social bubble to another.
“There is some household transmission, but there are also parties they have been holding and we are finding they are also spreading the virus at gatherings in bars,” said Hirji, who declined to say which homes were impacted.
In some cases, the young adults were visiting a home, and in others, they are employed in a long-term-care facility, he said.
An analysis of public health data by The Standard last week shows that over 48 per cent of October COVID-19 cases in Niagara were people aged 20-39, making it the single most infected demographic in the region.
Hirji said in that demographic, most of the cases are in people under 30 who have maintained large social circles, are not physically distancing at gatherings nor wearing masks.
For months, Hirji has been warning if the local novel coronavirus infection rate continued to rise, the chances of the virus infecting a more vulnerable person, or finding its way into a long-term-care home becomes greater.
This cluster, which Hirji said is continuing to expand as the virus spreads, has turned his warning into a reality.
Niagara has seen a noticeable rise in infections over the past month. During the first week of October, the seven-day rolling average of new cases was around 10.
As of Monday, that figure was just under 19 cases.
Monday, when 20 new cases were confirmed by public health, was the fourth consecutive day of 20 or more cases in Niagara. There were 26 cases on Sunday, 28 on Saturday and 25 on Friday.
Monday also saw hospitalizations rise with four people now being treated at the St. Catharines hospital.
Public health also confirmed three more Niagara residents — all people over 80 — with COVID-19 have died, bringing the total number of pandemic-related deaths in the region to 74.
The number of active COVID-19 cases in Niagara now stands at 164, a level not seen since the peak of the first wave in early May.
There are five long-term-care outbreaks in Niagara. In the case of the longest-lasting outbreak at Millennium Trail Manor in Niagara Falls, the provincial government ordered Niagara Health to take over the home.
However, the largest outbreak is at the regionally run Gilmore
Lodge in Fort Erie, where 14 residents and four staff are sickened by the virus. At least two residents of Millennium Trail with the virus have died along with at least one Gilmore Lodge resident.
Hirji said the cluster of 20somethings began to spread the virus in early October. The cluster was not created in a single, superspreader event, Hirji said, but started small and sprawled as the virus jumps across overlapping social circles.
Public health’s repeated warnings have not been heeded by this group, Hirji said. Given the consequences of their behaviour, it is possible Niagara will soon attract the attention of a provincial government keen to avoid the lethal COVID-19 outbreaks in long- term- care homes seen in the pandemic’s spring wave.
“You could make a case that there may be a need to temporarily close bars since that is where these people are gathering and spreading the virus,” said Hirji.
Other venues which have become sites of COVID-19 spread in other communities, including gyms, have not been significant sources of virus transmission in Niagara, he said.
“However, if that kind of targeted approach doesn’t work, then you could see a more untargeted lockdown,” Hirji said.
The rising infection rate is not what the public health department wanted to see as Niagara heads into the fall. The virus spreads more easily indoors with poor ventilation and among people who are closely gathered together.
However, Hirji urged Niagara residents not to give up hope.
If people tighten up their social circles, physically distance, wash their hands and wear masks, the infection rate can be brought under control again.
“But it is going to be much more difficult to do that now,” he said.
The one reason for optimism, he said, was that public health has been able to link recent new infections with known past cases, which means there is a smaller number of unknown infection sources in the community.
However, Hirji said if Niagara does not act immediately to tamp down the spread of COVID-19, a provincially mandated lockdown becomes more likely.