‘Really warm temperatures’ are expected to arrive in Niagara by Wednesday

Some Niagara residents woke up to a light dusting of snow on their vehicles and lawns Monday morning. But the forecast for the next several days is not as winter-like.

Environment Canada meteorologist Gerald Cheng said a seasonal temperature for early November is between 9C and 11C — about five or six notches on the thermometer higher than the 5C average for Monday.

Tuesday will be slightly warmer, but Wednesday until early next week will be “really above seasonal,” as temperatures are expected to hit 15C or more during that time span.

“In a couple of days, things are really looking up,” he said, adding that Sunday and Monday’s cold is a “low point” for this time of year.

This is the result of a surge of warm air moving this way from the Gulf of Mexico, Cheng said in an interview Monday.

“That’s why we’re looking at some really warm temperatures ahead,” he said, adding that people shouldn’t put off getting their winter tires onto their vehicles, as colder, seasonal temperatures will return when the warm front dissipates.

The highest temperature recorded in Welland on Nov. 2 was a balmy 23.3C in 1932. The coldest Nov. 2 on record occurred in 1993 when a brisk -5.5C hit the region, said Cheng.

Not enough snow accumulated Monday in Niagara for a reading, but places like York Region were hit with about three centimetres, Cheng said.

Lake Erie is sitting at 12C in Port Colborne currently, Cheng said Monday, adding this is considered normal for this time of year.

Lake-effect snow is caused by large differences between the temperature of the water and the air. If the lake gets warmer during the mild day ahead and a cold front hits the region, Cheng said a significant snow event could be possible.

“You always have that possibility of lake-effect snow,” said Cheng.

Once the lake becomes ice, chances of lake-effect events drop.

“The only time we don’t have to worry about it, especially in the winter, is when it’s frozen over,” said Cheng.

Looking ahead to a longerterm forecast, from November to January, Cheng said it could be a warmer winter to start.

“The trend is that it’s going to be above normal,” said Cheng.

Whether this winter will require a lot of shovelling and other forms of snow removal, it is unclear at this point.

“That’s a little bit murkier. There’s not a lot of signals showing one way or another,” said Cheng.

KRIS DUBÉ TORSTAR Two kayakers on the recreational canal in Welland Monday afternoon. The temperatures were cool on Monday but are expected to pick up later in the week.