Deadly winter ahead, says Hirji
Young spread the virus, but old and vulnerable are paying the price
For at least the 18th time since the post-summer COVID-19 wave began, a Niagara resident with the virus has died.
No information about the person has been released. Their passing was only publicly noted Friday in Niagara Health statistics, which added its 44th COVID-19 patient death to its daily totals.
There have already been more deaths in November than in all of October, with the local COVID-19 related-death mirroring what it was during the initial pandemic wave in the spring. Including Friday’s death, at least 82 Niagara residents infected with the virus have died.
Recent deaths have put a grim exclamation point on the story of the second COVID-19 wave: Young adults are spreading the potentially lethal virus and older, more vulnerable people are paying the price for it.
Those under 40 — particularly people in their 20s — generate most new infections. Those 80 and older then acquire the virus with fatal results.
“That would be a fair assessment of the situation right now,” said Niagara’s acting medical officer of health Dr. Mustafa Hirji. “There are lots of 20-yearolds, probably most of them, who are acting responsibly. But
there are also many of them who are not and there is a consequence to that.”
The subset of Niagara’s young adults who are largely responsible for driving up Niagara’s COVID-19 infection rate each day has become a source of mystery and frustration for public health officials who say the winter does not have to be a bleak season of rising infections, more deaths and lockdowns.
But because of the behaviour of these younger adults, it likely will be, said Hirji.
“Our numbers are really not going in the kind of direction we want them to be as we head into the coldest time of the year,”said Hirji. “And unfortunately, unless this changes, it could be a very difficult holiday season for many people.”
The public health department has turned to market research for help in understanding these young adults. Nine months of public health messaging, news reports and the urgings of some political leaders have made no impact on them, so Hirji wanted to know what might make a difference.
The answer was not encouraging. Hirji said the market research showed these young adults place a high value on personal enjoyment and entertainment, disdain traditional authority figures and put a low value on protecting their own health and that of others.
“If we were a company selling a product and were faced with this kind of market data, we would say ‘Well, these people are not our core demographic’,” said Hirji. “But in public health, we don’t have that luxury.”
This “me first” attitude played a role in the creation of the made-in-Niagara super spreader cluster that spread COVID-19 to eight local municipalities, including local longterm-care homes and is now linked to cases in the GTA.
The cluster is comprised of people with a median age of 24 with large, overlapping social circles. They have been spreading the virus to each other in restaurants, bars and house parties. This trend played a significant role in Hirji’s decision to issues orders requiring restaurant patrons to only dine at restaurants with members of their immediate household or essential contacts, like a caregiver or the partner of someone who lives alone.
The rising tide of infections also resulted in the province moving Niagara into the orange alert zone, which reduced the number of people who can dine together to four at a restaurant.
It will take several weeks to see if the measures have the intended effect, said Hirji. Although Niagara regional council wants him to provide updates every two weeks, the novel coronavirus does not follow that kind of time table.
Even under severe lockdowns, it can take up to four weeks for changes in the data to appear. It is in that kind of longer timeframe that Hirji will make future decisions about his public health orders, he said.
In the meantime, Hirji said he expects there will be more deaths. Those whose behaviour has lead to the virus reaching the most vulnerable have already done potentially lethal damage in the community. It will be weeks before that will change, Hirji said.