O’Toole emerging as preferred Conservative leadership pick
OTTAWA — Conservative parliamentarians and longtime Tory operatives sitting on the sidelines of the leadership contest are anxiously hoping MP Erin O’Toole will jump into the race, believing he’s the best candidate to broaden party support and defeat the Liberals.
Momentum for O’Toole is building as some recent signs suggest longtime former cabinet minister Peter MacKay, considered a possible front-runner, might decide to stay out.
O’Toole, a former cabinet minister in the late stages of the Harper government, is expected to decide in a matter of days, according to a source familiar with his plans.
Party leadership races are far from an exact science, but a growing number of Conservative members of Parliament and organizers says the affable MP for Durham checks most of the boxes the party needs in its next leader.
O’Toole is young (43), from Ontario, married with two young kids. He represents a riding in the Greater Toronto Area, but lives in a small community and has rural sensibilities.
He also served in the military, has strong ties to Atlantic Canada, and business experience in downtown Toronto. He is seen as level-headed and a good communicator.
Then there’s his good foundation in French (although he would need to brush up on it to be fully bilingual) and the fact he can trumpet his cabinet experience without carrying the baggage of the Harper government.
Above all, perhaps, he would represent a change for the Conservatives.
“I think there would be a lot of support for a candidate like Erin and what he would bring to the race,” said Jason MacDonald, Harper’s former director of communications in the Prime Minister’s Office, now with H+K Strategies.
“Erin is someone I believe would hold a lot of appeal for party members. And caucus members respect him, which is a critical factor for anyone considering a leadership run.”
He is a “principled conservative” who satisfies an appetite within the party and general public for generational change, adds MacDonald. He’s also an excellent communicator who can deliver a strong message “with the right tone and with intelligence.”
Last week, MacKay told a Newfoundland radio station “it’s difficult, to say the least, to walk away” from his family obligations and his new job in Toronto with a global law firm.
“It’s doable, but is it desirable? That’s the decision I have to make.”
But even if MacKay decides to run, veteran Conservative operatives believe O’Toole has a lot to offer.
“He’s MacKay-esque in that he has a disposition that is more, by nature, calm and not inclined to get aggravated easily,” said Tim Powers, vice-chairman of Summa Strategies in Ottawa and longtime Conservative strategist.
“He’s a good communicator. He has the true-blue Canadian boy background that Conservatives of different stripes would like.”
As well, O’Toole has “an outward sense of reasonableness” Harper lacked.
“That is going to be important for a number of people in this leadership race — can they be perceived as being reasonable individuals, never mind leaders to the Canadian electorate,” Powers added.
O’Toole was one of eight Conservative MPs to run for interim leadership, but lost out to Rona Ambrose.
Some fellow MPs quietly worry about the optics of O’Toole’s friendship with Jenni Byrne, a longtime Harper loyalist.
Byrne is a brutally effective political campaigner. While she was seen as the mastermind behind the Conservative majority in 2011, she has also taken heaps of blame for the 2015 defeat.
But a source said Byrne, who now lives in Toronto, expects to sit out any leadership campaign.
O’Toole was first elected as an MP in late 2012 in a byelection, after Bev Oda resigned following an expenses scandal.
He was appointed Veterans Affairs minister in January 2015, replacing Julian Fantino, and helped patch up the government’s threadbare relationship with veterans.
O’Toole earned his wings as a tactical navigator on Sea King helicopters. He was born in Montreal and raised in rural Ontario. His father John was a longtime Progressive Conservative member of Ontario’s provincial parliament.
He has a strong network or supporters in Ontario and in Atlantic Canada, having been posted to Canadian Forces Base Shearwater in Nova Scotia, then attending Dalhousie Law School, before returning to Ontario to practise corporate law.