Petes clinch playoff berth

With 12 games left in the regular season, the Petes have already clinched a playoff berth.

As it sits, the Petes are once again tied with the Oshawa Generals for first place in the Eastern Conference. The teams have identical win-loss records and have split the season series, with each team having won three of six games and each of the last three meetings being decided in overtime or a shootout.

There has been little to separate the two clubs to date but establishing some separation could be critical to the Petes playoff success.

Since the Jan. 10 trade deadline, the Petes have an impressive 12-4-1 record. Despite trading away Anthony Cirelli and Mitch Vande Sompel, the Gens haven’t fallen off much at all, playing their way to a 11-5-1 record.

Meanwhile, the preseason favourite Mississauga Steelheads have found their game, amassing a 10-3-5 record in the same time span. These three teams have established themselves as the top three teams in the Eastern Conference.

Assuming all three teams win their first round playoff series against the sixth, seventh and eigth ranked teams in the league, the second and third seeds would meet each other in round two of the Eastern Conference playoffs, while the team who has first seed would face either the fourth or fifth ranked team – likely to be Hamilton or Kingston – a formidable opponent but not at the level of the top three.

Further, because division winners receive the first two seeds in the Conference, the Steelheads, with a 12-point lead over the next best Central division team (the Sudbury Wolves) and a 10-point deficit behind the Petes and Generals, are all but locked in to the second seed, meaning the Petes and Generals will occupy the 1st and 3rd seeds respectively.

This means that if the Petes fail to overtake the Generals for the top spot, they not only could have to face the Steelheads in the second round but would be doing so without home ice advantage due to Mississauga being the higher seed – despite having an inferior record.

Upsets of course are always a possibility in the playoffs and there are no guarantees in terms of how things will play out in the end. That said, because of this tougher path the number three (and later) seeds must follow, eight of the last nine Eastern Conference champions were either the first or second overall seed entering the playoffs, with last season’s Niagara Ice Dogs being the lone exception.

Looking at their schedules down the stretch, the Petes face Oshawa twice, Mississauga once, as well as Western Conference standouts Owen Sound and Erie once each. In addition to the two games with the Petes, the Generals have three games against Western Conference opponents remaining, though none against teams in the top half of the standings. The Gens also have three games each remaining against division rivals Ottawa and Kingston.

The Petes have a slightly tougher schedule remaining but with the pair of games against Oshawa, they certainly control their own fate down the stretch. It will be a tight race to the finish between the Petes and Generals, if the Petes can manage to overtake them for good, they will give themselves an easier path once the playoffs arrive.